Giants/Rangers Trade Analysis: Bengie Molina for Chris Ray/PTNBL

Yet another trade went down last night as we get within one month of the trade deadline, as the San Francisco Giants sent catcher Bengie Molina to the Texas Rangers for reliever Chris Ray and a player to be named later.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way: When there’s a PTNBL involved, the deal dramatically changes. If it’s a short-season middle reliever, that’s very different from it being a quality prospect, and that can obviously swing the deal one way or the other.

With that in mind, I’m forced to essentially evaluate this as Molina-for-Ray and then list sort of a range of possibilities from there.

But before we worry about those sorts of semantics, let’s look at Molina and Ray.

Bengie Molina is one of the most overrated players in baseball. He’s hitting .257/.312/.332, which doesn’t really cut it even as an NL catcher. That translates to a truly dreadful .284 wOBA, and Molina hasn’t topped a .320 OBP since 2005.

One thing that’s been brought up quite a bit in the wake of this deal is that Molina could rediscover his power in the hitter-friendly environment in Texas. It’s possible, but the guy’s slugging percentage with the Giants has dropped 110 points between last year and this year, so expecting the 20-HR guy to come in is a bit foolish.

Molina does consistently put the ball in play (just 19 K this season), but with his well-documented lack of speed, that doesn’t help him much. He’s also hitting more balls on the ground (38.4%) than he has since 2006, further emphasizing the lack of speed and de-emphasizing whatever power he has left.

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To make matters even worse, Molina saw his defense fall off a cliff last year, as he rated nine runs below average. Reports that I’ve read have him still below average this season. Just because he’s a Molina doesn’t mean he’s good at defense.

This essentially makes Molina redundant with Matt Treanor (.237/.315/.378 with five homers this year, and average defense) and worse than Max Ramirez (.217/.341/.348).

Why would a team go out of their way to block Ramirez, who’s 10 years younger, has 29 more points of OBP, and 16 more points of slugging, with Molina? As a backup, it might make sense, but what advantage does he really have on Treanor?

Yes, Molina may get a bit of a power boost from the ballpark, but he’ll also be dealing with AL West pitching, which is pretty formidable. There aren’t units like Arizona’s bullpen over there. He’s also hit 20 homers once in his career, and it was exactly 20. The guy’s a career .414 slugger; this is not a Vladimir Guerrero situation.

From the Giants’ perspective, this gets the underachieving Molina out of San Francisco for some return (although you wonder why he was re-signed in the first place) and makes room for Buster Posey to catch and Aubrey Huff to slide over to first base. That’s a good thing.

The team also gets Ray, who’s pitching way over his head. He’s walked as many batters (16) as he’s struck out, and yet has a 3.41 ERA.

Ray does have a confusing, deceptive delivery that makes him tough to square up (18.3% liner rate in his career, .279 career BABIP), which may allow him to pitch above his peripherals a bit, but not to the extent he’s outdone his 5.88 xFIP this year.

A flyballer, Ray should fit well in San Francisco’s spacious park. He features a mid-90’s fastball with tailing action, a hard slider, and the occasional curveball and splitter. All four are reasonably effective pitches.

Ray’s awkward delivery contributes to his spotty control, so he really isn’t more than a sixth-inning type. Still, he has more of a case to fill a roster spot than Molina does, since he’s a good fit for the ballpark and at least occasionally flashes plus stuff.

San Francisco has gotten strong performances from Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo, and Santiago Casilla out of the bullpen, so Ray probably slots in as the fourth righty. It’s not clear to me if he’s an upgrade over Denny Bautista or Guillermo Mota, both of whom are also pitching above their peripherals by about two runs, but it’s easier to mess around with bullpens than catchers, and Ray is eight years younger and loaded with more upside than Molina is.

Honestly, if this is just a Ray-for-Molina swap, I like the Giants’ side better–and that’s before accounting for the PTNBL. That’s not to say the Rangers will be irreparably damaged by letting Ray go for Molina–I don’t think either is any sort of difference-maker right now, so unless the PTNBL is a real prospect, there’s no reason to get up in arms about Nolan Ryan & Co. “completely screwing up” the deal.

The big concern I have is not, in fact, if swapping out Chris Ray for Bengie Molina will hurt the Rangers, it’s if swapping out Max Ramirez for Molina will hurt the Rangers. That’s the bigger issue to worry about here. As for the Giants, they free up room for Posey, get Huff back to a position he can actually play, and get a live arm (and a PTNBL). It’s not the sexiest of moves, but it really helps San Francisco out in several ways.

UPDATE (6/6/10): The PTNBL is 21-year-old righty Michael Main, a High-A starter who was promoted to Double-A following the trade. He’ll likely spend the rest of the season with Double-A Richmond.

Main is a former first-rounder (24th overall in 2007) who’s had an up-and-down career, with the notable “down” being a 6.83 ERA in High-A last season.

Main has a good low-90’s heater, average changeup, and inconsistent but sometimes plus breaking ball. He pounds the strike zone with all three pitches, and pitches to contact despite having plus stuff. He had a 72/21 K/BB in High-A in 91 1/3 innings this year.

Two negatives on him: Durability/injury issues and a home run problem. He’s had several significant injuries in his career, including a rotator cuff problem in high school. He’s allowed 14 homers this year and doesn’t get many grounders, and pitching in the Cal League exacerbated that problem. Of course, he’ll now move to the Eastern League, which should keep a few more balls in the yard.

This sort of skill package, honestly, reminds me of another Giants pitcher whose last name ends with “ain,” and he’s parlayed that into a very nice career thus far. Pitching in San Francisco ultimately keeps the ball in the yard, and Brian Sabean’s emphasis on building a strong defense rewards pitchers who pound the strike zone and pitch to contact. Just 21 and now in Double-A, Main certainly has the potential to be a very solid starting pitcher, and clearly tips this deal in San Francisco’s favor.