Astros/Phillies Trade Analysis: Roy Oswalt for J.A. Happ, Two Prospects

Roy Oswalt has been traded to the Phillies.

Finally.

After all sorts of haggling about his no-trade clause and 2012 option from Oswalt himself, not to mention the simple matter of the two teams negotiating on the prospects to be exchanged for the Houston right-hander, the deal is complete, at last.

Oswalt will go to the Phillies in exchange for major league lefthander J.A. Happ, minor league outfielder Anthony Gose, and minor league shortstop Jonathan Villar.

My take on the deal follows after the jump, as always.

The Obvious

Roy Oswalt is definitely a good pitcher. His defense-independent stats are right with his 3.42 ERA. His strikeout rate is actually at its highest since his 2001 rookie season, so he isn’t slowing down at age 32 (33 in a month).

For years a pitcher who relied almost exclusively on a low-90’s fastball and two different breaking pitches, Oswalt has made a concerted effort to throw more changeups this year. While the pitch isn’t particularly good, it’s helped get batters off of his previously strict fastball/breaking ball regimen, and the heater, slider, and curve have all been more effective as a result.

Oswalt still throws his fastball in the 91-95 range, and his 93.1 mph average on the pitch is the same it was back in 2003. His slow curve is a deadly weapon, and his hard slider is no slouch either. Add in his excellent command of the three, and you have a pitcher with, well, a 3.42 ERA.

Oswalt is short, and his fastball is pretty straight, so he’ll give up a few homers, but dealing with Citizens Bank Park shouldn’t be that much harder than dealing with the Crawford Boxes (although CF and RF in Houston are very tough for hitters to clear). Still, Oswalt’s just about average in that regard, not terrible.

Those that blindly follow ERA may point to Happ’s 3.11 career mark and say he’s already better than Oswalt. Happ had a 2.93 mark last year and was at 1.76 in three starts this season.

However, Happ has neither the stuff nor the defense-independent stats to match Oswalt. His fastball sits in the 89-90 range, his changeup is solid, and he lacks a plus breaking ball. He’s got a good deal of deception in his delivery, but he’s more of a smoke-and-mirrors act than a dominant ace.

Calling a pitcher a “smoke-and-mirrors act” might not sound kind, but I don’t mean it as any sort of insult–Happ definitely belongs in a big league rotation. Still, he’s not going to keep stranding 84.3% of runners or sustain a .270 BABIP, which are his career marks. If those revert back to average, which they’re likely to, Happ will wind up with an ERA closer to his 4.50 FIP.

That said, centering a deal for an ace like Oswalt on Happ is much fairer than centering one on, say, Joe Saunders (but who in the world would do that?). Clearly, Oswalt is the better pitcher (we’ll get to how much better in a bit), but Happ is under team control through 2014, he’s cheap, he could improve, and he’s already a solid fourth starter. The Astros need players like that more than just about any other team in baseball.

The Not-So-Obvious

How much better is Oswalt than Happ?

Well, Happ was worth $8 million last year, according to Fangraphs’ WAR totals. Since it was his first full season, we can probably expect him to improve (not ERA-wise, but FIP-wise) a bit as he settles in, and probably be worth $10-12 million for each year 2011-2014, provided he comes back in form after missing much of this year with injuries.

Oswalt, on the other hand, has already been worth $10.7 million this year, so he’s likely to end up in the $15-18 million range.

That means Happ could be worth just shy of $50 million for the rest of his team-control years, while Oswalt will only be worth closer to $35 million through 2011. The Phillies would actually have to pick up Oswalt’s 2012 option to get similar total value out of him as the Astros will get from Happ.

Of course, total value rarely is what 1 1/2 year-rentals are about, though. The Phillies acquired Oswalt to widen their playoff window this year and next, while their slowly aging core can still compete. If Oswalt does make that difference, he’ll generate a big stream of revenue for the Phillies beyond what Happ will be able to put up in Houston.

Right there, though, this establishes a risk for Philadelphia: If they don’t make the playoffs, then they really lose this deal, even before the prospects come in, no matter what Oswalt himself does, although they could always trade him at the 2011 deadline if Oswalt consents.

Could Oswalt push the Phillies into the playoffs? Sure. He could be worth 1-2 wins the rest of the way, which is huge for a team 3 1/2 out of the division and 2 1/2 out of the wild card. Starting him instead of Kyle Kendrick in the playoffs will also no doubt make a difference as to how far the Phillies are able to go if they do reach the postseason. It certainly isn’t a far-fetched idea that he could make a big difference; this isn’t some team eight games out of first that thinks one guy can singlehandedly get them out of that hole.

For their part, the Astros should be glad to get any sort of young talent into a system that has very little (although I do love Jordan Lyles). They’re hoping for Michael Bourn 2.0 with Anthony Gose, an outfielder in High-A ball who’s about to turn 20.

One of the fastest players in the game, Gose swiped 70 bags last year. He’s struggled on the bases this year, though, going just 36-for-63. Very young for his level, he’s hitting .263/.325/.385, which isn’t bad given his age and the pitcher’s league in which he plays (the Florida State League is notoriously pitcher-friendly).

Gose has been compared to Carl Crawford for his speed, left-handed swing, and power potential. Some scouts think he could hit 20 homers down the line, and he’s already hit four this year after hitting just two last season. Gose also has 17 doubles and a whopping eleven triples.

In order to get better use of his speed, Gose does need to tighten up his strike zone. He’s whiffed 103 times this year and walked just 32. He needs to improve his approach, but at his age, he has time to do that.

Defensively, he’s also one of the best center fielders in the minors, so at the very least, he should be a valuable part-timer who saves tons of runs in center field with his stellar range and terrific arm.

A level below Gose is the shortstop Jonathan Villar, the third player in the deal. Like Gose, Villar is young for his level, as he’s only 19. He’s another speed-and-defense player, batting .272/.332/.358 with 38 steals and too many strikeouts (103).

The switch-hitter is an erratic fielder (42 errors) who may have to move to second base down the line, but scouts think he’ll ultimately be able to stick at second and do spot work at short.

It’s tough to judge Villar and Gose’s production because they’re so much younger than most of their competition. The two conclusions that we can draw are these:

1.) They’re holding their own admirably for their age, but certainly not dominating.
2.) They’ll need better approaches to succeed at higher levels, but they’re so young that they still have time to adjust.

So, there you have it. A year and a half of Roy Oswalt is worth a solid MLB starter and two high-risk prospects that have good potential. Gose could be an All-Star if everything breaks right, and Villar could be a starter at a middle infield position, and those aren’t easy to come by. Sure makes more sense than 3 1/2 years of Dan Haren being worth three back-of-the-rotation lefties.

Houston’s also chipping in a good portion of Oswalt’s salary. It was important for them to get some position player depth, since their offense is a mess, and on the pitching side, they at least have Lyles to lead future rotations. The Astros did a commendable job targeting players that fit their needs. Hopefully their player-development department, which is something short of “vaunted,” will be able to help Gose and Villar with pitch recognition, two-strike approaches, and plate discipline. The nice thing is that they got Happ as well, which means that even if Gose and Villar never figure it out, there’s a good chance they get more total value out of the deal, as I outlined several hundred words ago.

Now, this isn’t the sort of slam-dunk prospect haul that would make the deal an obvious win for Houston, though. Happ’s a nice mid-to-back-of-the-rotation arm, Gose has a lot of work to do if he’s going to be the next Carl Crawford, or even Michael Bourn, and Villar has plenty of polish to acquire on both sides of the ball as well.

But Houston badly needs minor league depth, though, and Gose and Villar give the system two more solid prospects.With Jiovanni Mier‘s 2010 flop, Villar instantly becomes the team’s best middle infield prospect, and Gose slides in as the center fielder of the future in an outfield that could see Bourn in left and J.D. Martinez in right. With Jason Castro behind the plate, Koby Clemens at first, and Villar slotting in at second, all of a sudden, the Astros start to have some possible solid position players in the future.

Conclusions

There are two ways to look at this deal. The first is that the Phillies didn’t sacrifice any future core players (i.e. Domonic Brown) to get Oswalt, who could push them into the playoffs this year and possibly next, and that Houston made a mistake to not get any players that look like decent bets to become stars. Compared to some of the massive packages we’ve seen (this pales in comparison to what the Phillies gave up for Cliff Lee, for example, as Jason Knapp projects to be a front-of-the-rotation starter) to get rentals, this looks like an underwhelming prospect haul.

The second way, though, is to recognize that most of those prospect hauls favor the team getting the prospects, and therefore, just because this deal isn’t quite at that level doesn’t mean it slants’ the Phillies’ direction. Rather, both teams are assuming some risk. The Phillies need to make the playoffs for this trade to be worth it, and the Astros need to get something from Gose and/or Villar for it to be worth it. The Phillies got the pitcher they want without giving up any likely All-Stars, and the Astros took a step toward restocking their farm system while unloading some of Oswalt’s contract.

So yes, this deal probably isn’t as favorable toward the rebuilding team as most deadline moves are, especially since the Astros had to kick in some $11 million in the trade. Still, the Astros addressed some key needs and are quite likely to get more total value out of Happ alone than the Phillies will get from Oswalt.

This is a pretty fair, win-win trade, when it’s all said and done.

UPDATE: Gose has been traded to Toronto for first base prospect Brett Wallace. More analysis on that here.