Analyzing the Jose Guillen Trade

I’m going to be very brief about the latest deal that went down, mainly because we don’t know who the Giants acquired Jose Guillen from the Royals for. A player to be named later and cash were the terms, and it’s anyone’s guess as to how good the PTNBL is. The cash amount is supposedly something like $250,000.

Even if the PTNBL is the worst player in the Giants’ system, I like the Royals’ side of this deal, mainly because Kila Ka’aihue, who Guillen’s been blocking for something like two full years, finally gets his chance to play. The Royals finally went to Ka’aihue (who is a superior player right now as it is, not to mention that he’s got six more years of team control remaining and a ton more upside than Guillen) after releasing Guillen earlier this month to allow the Triple-A masher to come up and play every day. That they got anything–even just the $250K–for Guillen is thus a victory. The Royals improved their team and got some compensation. End of story.

Why do the Giants need Guillen? He’s a terrible defender who spent almost all of his time in Kansas City this season as a DH, and it’s not like San Francisco’s outfield (nor that of any other NL West competitors) is a place to hide a DH.

So now, the Giants have both Pat Burrell and Guillen in the outfield corners, which is a nightmare arragement for a pitcher like Matt Cain, whose success has been largely thanks to the great defensive outfields San Francisco’s had for years. Why build a defense that won’t help its pitching staff?

It’d be excusable if Guillen could rake, but he’s got a .325 wOBA and posted even lower marks in 2008 and 2009. I’m not convinced he’s any better than Aaron Rowand or Nate Schierholtz–yes, both have been terrible at the plate, but they can at least defend well. A platoon of those two is better than Guillen–Rowand can hit lefties a bit, Schierholtz can hit righties a bit, and both play good defense. Guillen is worse against lefties than Rowand, and he’s far worse defensively than either. At best, that’s a wash–it certainly isn’t the sort of upgrade the Giants will need.

It is worth noting, in San Francisco’s defense, that Guillen is something of a streaky hitter (he was on fire early this year, for example), so maybe they’re hoping that they catch lightning in a bottle for six weeks. I’ve seen worse ideas, and while this move isn’t likely to work, it also likely doesn’t completely shatter whatever chances San Francisco had of making the postseason, even if it fails. So, it’s probably harmless, since Guillen will be gone in 2011, asssuming the PTNBL is nobody of consequence, and I doubt it is.

Anyway, kudos to the Royals for finally clearing space for Ka’aihue.