Notable Numerals: Stephen Strasburg, Kevin Youkilis and More

After the hearing the devastating news about young Stephen Strasburg and his need for Tommy John Surgery a few weeks ago, I knew that I had to devote an edition of Notable Numerals to the theme of injuries and their impact on teams. Many teams have been ravaged by injuries in 2010 (not many worse than the Boston Red Sox), so it is only fitting that we take a trip down the list of injuries that hurt teams the most, whether it be in terms of contention for a playoff spot, or in the case of Strasburg and the Washington Nationals, the only real positive for a struggling franchise. With around 4 weeks remaining in the season, it is a time for many of these clubs to start building for next year and saying goodbye to 2010, while the rare few still find themselves in the hunt for October. Enjoy!

K’s per inning pitched for young phenom Stephen Strasburg before being told he needs to have Tommy John Surgery that will sideline him for 12-18 months. The news of Strasburg’s injury sent shockwaves across the baseball world. For a kid who had the most hyped up entrance onto the big stage of any player in history, he has remained unfazed and has been impressive in his 12 big league starts. Before the injury, Strasburg was 5-3 with a 2.91 era and 92 K’s in just 68 innings pitched, all while pitching for the 57-75 last place Washington Nationals. Oh yeah, and he has accomplished all of this at the ripe old age of 22. The surgery is devastating, but at his age, Strasburg will lose a year, hopefully recover fully and jump back on the path for a long, stellar career.

The potential upside for Strasburg is undeniably through the roof. He came within 8 K’s of breaking the 100 mark in his 1st 12 big league starts and as he matures and gets more comfortable facing major league hitters, his pitch-sequences and decision-making will only continue to improve. Many of the earned runs he allowed in 2010 were ‘rookie mistakes’, such as thinking he could sneak his fastball by someone, or throwing too good of a pitch with 2 strikes to a power hitter. If the Washington Nationals can build on their nucleus of young talent, they could be somewhat competitive in 2012 when Strasburg returns, because now they have an ace, they can build a staff around him.

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Slugging percentage for Kevin Youkilis before needing to have a torn muscle in his thumb surgically repaired in early August. The Red Sox have had one of the most difficult years in terms of injuries in the history of the franchise. A great illustration of the revolving door of injuries and DL stints is that the Sox have had 117 different batting orders in 132 games played in 2010. Maybe the most astounding part of this season has been the Sox ability to stay close in the AL East until just recently and have a record that in any other division in baseball would either place them atop the division or within striking range in 2nd place. Until Kevin Youkilis went down with the torn muscle in his thumb, the Sox were still legitimately competing for the post-season.

Youkilis has emerged over the last few years as one of the best hitters in baseball. Since 2008, Youk has hit .308 with an average of 25 home runs and 90 rbis a year, which includes this year’s injury shortened season. His slugging percentage on average sits at .560, which was a huge spark for the Red Sox in 2010 and his all-out intensity and leadership was what was keeping the Sox chugging along, even when half of their opening day roster was on the shelf. The team has been missing his big bat in the middle of the lineup since his injury and although he is still a vocal leader in the dugout, he can no longer lead by example and jump-start the sluggish Sox offense when they need him the most. Youk certainly is not the only reason the Sox are virtually eliminated from the playoffs in 2010, but his injury was the final straw that drained an already mentally exhausted ball club.

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Career saves for Minnesota Twins closer Joe Nathan, who missed all of the 2010 season with an elbow injury. The devastating news that one of the best closers in baseball was going to have elbow surgery and miss all of 2010 was a tough way to begin the year for the Twins. Joe Nathan’s need for elbow surgery seemed to immediately put a serious dent in the Twins’ chances of winning the AL Central and making some noise in the post-season, but they persevered in a big way. Despite losing their best reliever, the Twins are in prime position to take the division crown thanks to a combination of Jon Rauch and recent acquisitions Matt Capps and Brian Fuentes, who have taken over the closer role and run with it.

If you had told me the Twins would have 75+ wins and a strong shot at the post-season without Joe Nathan I wouldn’t have believed you, but there is magic in Minnesota. For years, the franchise has competed and been successful with a small payroll and a small media market. Recently, the Twins have begun to invest in their future, signing Joe Mauer to an 8-year, $184 million deal, and have quietly become one of the best clubs in the AL. They may make some noise this season, but imagine how good they will be next year when their closer returns and they have a stacked bullpen of late-inning guys they can go to in order to bridge the 7th and 8th inning gap. Strap yourself in, the Twins are on ready to take it to the next level.

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K to BB ratio for Magglio Ordonez before he broke his ankle and had season ending surgery in late July. In the course of 1 game, the Detroit Tigers lost 2 players to the DL, Carlos Guillen with a strained calf and Magglio Ordonez with a broken ankle. That late July game marked the beginning of the end for the Tigers, who sat just 2.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox in 3rd place in the AL Central. Since that point the Tigers have rapidly lost ground, sitting 10+ games out of the division lead and 7+ games behind the White Sox for 3rd place. Losing Guillen was tough, but Ordonez was one of the few big bats in the Tigers lineup, hitting .303 with 12 home runs and 59 rbis in 84 games this season.

Similar to the Red Sox injury to Kevin Youkilis, the injury to Magglio Ordonez had as much of a mental drain as it did a physical lack of player depth. Ordonez is a hitter that no pitcher wants to face in the middle of the lineup and was a difficult batter to strikeout in 2010, fanning just 38 times in 365 plate appearances. Ordonez certainly also benefited from his teammate Miguel Cabrera’s amazing season (.335+, 30+ home runs, 100+ rbis) and saw better pitches to hit and took advantage. Also, with Ordonez going down to injury, the Tigers lost much of their power threat, because besides Cabrera, only rookie Brennan Boesch and Ordonez have 10+ home runs on the season and 85% of Boesch’s home runs can in the 1st half. We can twist the stats any which way, but the bottom line is that Ordonez’s injury was detrimental to the Tigers season.

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Batting average for Justin Morneau before a collision at the plate left him with a concussion on July 7th and he has yet to return to the Twins lineup. Yes, another difficult Minnesota Twins injury. Yes, the 1st place Minnesota Twins who are likely to take the division crown. Yes, a team that can overcome major injuries to 2 of their top players and still have 75+ wins to begin September. Yes, that Twins team. I questioned the Twins chances when Joe Nathan went down in March and I continued to doubt them when Justin Morneau got a concussion in a collision at the plate in the 2nd week of July. There is no way a team can overcome these injuries to make the playoffs, forget win their division, right? Wrong.

Justin Morneau hasn’t played since July 7th and a time table for his return hasn’t been set yet given the nature of concussions, but it seems the Twins don’t need his incredible bat in their lineup to make the post-season. Before his DL stint, Morneau was hitting .345 with 18 home runs in 296 plate appearances. His slugging percentage was a ridiculous .618 and his OPS was 1.055, numbers that are only seen with the elite hitters in the game. Morneau was on pace to come close to, or beat many of his personal highs in home runs, rbis and hits, to name a few. As he progresses through the slow recovery process connected with concussions, Morneau may be able to rejoin the team in September and help the club in the post-season. Imagine how good this team could be with one of their best hitters back in the lineup?

Brian Phair – BoSox Injection – Notable Numerals

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