The Top 100 MLB Prospects 2010: #40-31

Welcome to the October 30, 2010 edition of This Week in Prospects! This time, it’s the eighth installment of my Top 100 Prospect List.

It’s a particularly arm-heavy edition this week, as only one batter is on this grouping of ten prospects. Around him, we have nine extremely interesting young pitchers who look to play vital roles in their teams’ futures. Let’s get started!

Intro/Honorable mentions (please read this if you haven’t)
#100-91
#90-81
#80-71
#70-61
#60-51
#50-41

#40.) Adrian Salcedo, RHP, Twins (Rookie)—The sort of guy whom everyone could be discussing a year from now, Salcedo dominated Appalachian League competition in 2010. We’re talking about a guy 15 months younger than I, and yet he’s posting absurd numbers like a 65/10 K/BB ratio. Not only is his command nearly unparalleled among 19-year-olds, Salcedo also boasts two knockout pitches in his fastball and curveball. He’s a true ace-in-the-making, and would rank much higher if he had significant full-season experience.

#39.) Robbie Erlin, LHP, Rangers (Low-A)—Erlin’s only a few months older than Salcedo, but he’s coming off an impressive year in Low-A in which he posted his own ridiculous K/BB (125/17 in 114 2/3 innings). Few, if any, teenagers can boast curves as tight as his, and Erlin brings good velocity for a lefty as well. Add in his superior command, and you have yet another budding ace in this 2009 3^rd-rounder.

#38.) John Lamb, LHP, Royals (AA)—Continuing the theme of youth, Lamb rocketed all the way to Double-A this year despite not turning 20 until mid-July. Nobody at either A-ball level could touch him. On pure upside, Lamb ranks below Salcedo and Erlin, as his stuff is merely solid-to-good across the board, with an 88-92 mph fastball and decent change/curve combo, but he’s an extremely polished pitcher who could wind up similar to the Mets incarnation of Johan Santana.

#37.) Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Brewers (Low-A)—Odorizzi is yet another pitcher who carved up Low-A in 2010 despite being born in the ‘90s. The Brewers’ best prospect by a fair margin, he utilizes a tough running fastball in the low-to-mid-90’s, and he’s developing an out-pitch curveball. Odorizzi whiffed over ten batters per nine innings while keeping the ball down and limiting walks. He may wind up becoming Yovani Gallardo 2.0 for the Brewers, who could really use some plus starting pitching in the near future.

#36.) Fabio Martinez Mesa, RHP, Angels (Low-A)—One of those enigmatic prospects who is nigh impossible to rank, Martinez Mesa struck out 12.28 batters per nine innings this year…but also walked 6.62. He’s got some of the best arm strength in the minors, running his fastball up near triple digits, but he has a very real chance of following the Henry Rodriguez career path and shifting to relief if he can’t get the ball over the plate more. He isn’t just a one-pitch wonder like Rodriguez, though: Martinez Mesa chucks a hard, tight slider and a playable changeup. If he tightens up his control, he could turn into one of the game’s most fearsome power arms.

#35.) Dellin Betances, RHP, Yankees (AA)—This former top prospect fell far down prospect lists after injury and command concerns and a mediocre 2009, but shot right back to the top once he proved himself completely healthy and back to being a hitter’s terror. A hulking 6’8” righthander with—you guessed it—a big-time fastball/curve combination, Betances cut his walk rate in more than half and posted an 88/19 K/BB in just 71 innings of High-A ball, and tacked on a 20/3 K/BB in three Double-A starts. For all the hiccups in his development, Betances is just 23 in March. While Andrew Brackman consistently gets mentioned as the jumbo-sized Yankee pitching prospect to watch, it’s Betances who’s the superior prospect of the two, as he posted better numbers at both Tampa and Trenton at a much younger age, and his stuff is right there with Brackman’s.

#34.) Brandon Beachy, RHP, Braves—This former undrafted free agent was one of the more remarkable out-of-nowhere stories of 2010, starting the year as a Double-A swingman and ending it making some key starts down the stretch for the Braves. 2.00 and 2.19 FIP marks in Double-A and Triple-A will do that, as Beachy posted a ridiculous (148/28) K/BB of his own across the two levels. He threw 15 dominating innings in the majors, whiffing 15 batters and not allowing a homer, showcasing a good low-90’s fastball and a plus changeup. The owner of a solid curveball as well, Beachy has a chance to become an ace, but more likely slots in as a very good #2 starter. Since he’s already got some major league success under his belt, he’s certainly a much safer bet than most to succeed, hence his high spot.

#33.) J.P. Arencibia, C, Blue Jays—The only hitter on this week’s ten-pack, Arencibia defied his doubters (myself included) by breaking out with a 32-homer season in Triple-A. He did play in a hitter’s park and was repeating the level, but he improved his batting line from .236/.284/.444 to .301/.359/.626, so clearly, he made adjustments. One of the biggest adjustments was finally learning how to take ball four, where he improved from cover-your-eyes bad to okay, thus giving him more pitches to drive. He flailed a bit in an 11-game cameo in the bigs, but that’s not all that surprising. While he’ll likely never employ a flawless approach or turn into an all-world defender, Arencibia could be a 30-HR catcher, and those are so rare that he deserves high acclaim.

#32.) Jake McGee, LHP, Rays—At 24, McGee’s one of the older prospects on the list, but part of that is due to past injury problems. Long a top prospect thanks to his rare velocity from the left side, he carved up Southern League hitters, whiffing 100 in 88 1/3 frames, before posting a 27/3 K/BB in 17 1/3 Triple-A innings. McGee flashed 92-96 mph heat and a good breaking ball in a late-season relief cameo with the Rays. Some want to see him move to the ‘pen full-time, but he could be a real terror as a starter, like Jorge de la Rosa with more command and groundball ability.

#31.) Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals (Low-A)—At age 19, Miller whiffed over 12 batters per nine in a full-season league. Any questions as to why he’s this high? His 3.71 ERA hid a splendid 2.42 FIP, and while he has a reputation as a hard thrower, Miller isn’t the sort of wild fastball guy Martinez Mesa is: he walked just 2.85 batters per nine this year (140/33 K/BB in 104 1/3). His fastball touches 97 at times, and—wait for it—he complements it with a plus curveball. Few teenagers have mastered (to this degree) the art of blowing hitters away without walking them.

Tags: Adrian Salcedo, Brandon Beachy, Dellin Betances, Fabio Martinez Mesa, J.P. Arencibia, Jake McGee, Jake Odorizzi, John Lamb, Robbie Erlin, Shelby Miller