Ten Half-Conculsions to Draw from My Top 100 Prospect List

I’ve spent the past eleven weeks of This Week in Prospects disclosing my Top 100 Prospects of 2010 list. For this column, I thought I’d present the list in its entirety (so you don’t have to click through ten lists of ten to see everybody) and then look at ten things the list suggests about some of baseball’s farm systems.

The list:

#100.) Dylan Unsworth, RHP, Mariners
#99.) Juan Castillo, C, Cardinals
#98.) Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks
#97.) Ronald Torreyes, INF, Reds
#96.) Michael Choice, OF, Athletics
#95.) Clint Robinson, 1B, Royals
#94.) Eric Surkamp, LHP, Giants
#93.) Rudy Owens, LHP, Pirates
#92.) Jason Hagerty, C, Padres
#91.) Reese Havens, 2B, Mets
#90.) Matt Packer, LHP, Indians
#89.) Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs
#88.) Ji-Man Choi, C, Mariners
#87.) Jonathan Garcia, OF, Dodgers
#86.) Tony Sanchez, C, Pirates
#85.) Miguel De Los Santos, LHP, Rangers
#84.) Derek Norris, C, Nationals
#83.) Wilmer Flores, SS, Mets
#82.) Randal Grichuk, OF, Angels
#81.) Brandol Perez, LHP, Mariners
#80.) Hector Noesi, RHP, Yankees
#79.) Engel Beltre, OF, Rangers
#78.) J.D. Martinez, OF, Astros
#77.) Felix Sterling, RHP, Indians
#76.) Austin Hyatt, RHP, Phillies
#75.) Rich Poythress, 1B, Mariners
#74.) Bryan Morris, RHP, Pirates
#73.) Nick Weglarz, OF, Indians
#72.) Deryk Hooker, RHP, Cardinals
#71.) Dustin Ackley, 2B, Mariners
#70.) Alex White, RHP, Indians
#69.) Chris Sale, LHP, White Sox
#68.) Christian Friedrich, LHP, Rockies
#67.) Aaron Hicks, OF, Twins
#66.) Alex Cobb, RHP, Rays
#65.) Joe Wieland, RHP, Rangers
#64.) Rashun Dixon, OF, Athletics
#63.) Trayvon Robinson, OF, Dodgers
#62.) Johermyn Chavez, OF, Mariners
#61.) Robinson Chirinos, C, Cubs
#60.) Alex Colome, RHP, Rays
#59.) Liam Hendriks, RHP, Twins
#58.) Chris Archer, RHP, Cubs
#57.) Jerry Sands, OF, Dodgers
#56.) Mike Montgomery, LHP, Royals
#55.) Chris Dwyer, LHP, Royals
#54.) Simon Castro, RHP, Padres
#53.) Joel Carreno, RHP, Blue Jays
#52.) Zach Britton, LHP, Orioles
#51.) Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Phillies
#50.) Andrew Brackman, RHP, Yankees
#49.) Lucas Duda, 1B/OF, Mets
#48.) Nick Franklin, SS, Mariners
#47.) Greg Halman, OF, Mariners
#46.) Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays
#45.) Kyle Gibson, RHP, Twins
#44.) Matt Lollis, RHP, Padres
#43.) Chun-Hsiu Chen, C, Indians
#42.) Trey McNutt, RHP, Cubs
#41.) Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Braves
#40.) Adrian Salcedo, RHP, Twins
#39.) Robbie Erlin, LHP, Rangers
#38.) John Lamb, LHP, Royals
#37.) Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Brewers
#36.) Fabio Martinez Mesa, RHP, Angels
#35.) Dellin Betances, RHP, Yankees
#34.) Brandon Beachy, RHP, Braves
#33.) J.P. Arencibia, C, Blue Jays
#32.) Jake McGee, LHP, Rays
#31.) Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals
#30.) Jaff Decker, OF, Padres
#29.) Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Indians
#28.) Randall Delgado, RHP, Braves
#27.) Manny Machado, SS, Orioles
#26.) Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Reds
#25.) Oswaldo Arcia, OF, Twins
#24.) Wilin Rosario, C, Rockies
#23.) Yorman Rodriguez, OF, Reds
#22.) Chris Carter, 1B/OF, Athletics
#21.) Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves
#20.) Jesus Montero, C, Yankees
#19.) Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants
#18.) Gary Sanchez, C, Yankees
#17.) Devin Mesoraco, C, Reds
#16.) Miguel Sano, 3B, Twins
#15.) Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals
#14.) Mike Minor, LHP, Braves
#13.) Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals
#12.) Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pirates
#11.) Jason Knapp, RHP, Indians
#10.) Matt Moore, LHP, Rays
#9.) Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals
#8.) Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Rays
#7.) Wil Myers, C, Royals
#6.) Manny Banuelos, LHP, Yankees
#5.) Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers
#4.) Michael Pineda, RHP, Mariners
#3.) Jordan Lyles, RHP, Astros
#2.) Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves
#1.) Mike Trout, OF, Angels
Technical Omissions: Domonic Brown, Jacob Turner

Admittedly, it’s fairly crude to make conclusions about the various systems based on my list. For one, it’s just my opinions, and for another, grading systems based simply on top 100 prospects doesn’t take organizational depth into account.

So, don’t take these as proclamations from me that certain teams will or will not do well in the future. This simply looks at what not-yet-in-MLB impact talent the organizations have. That certainly isn’t the only factor that goes into four-years later success: there’s also future drafting: trades, the age and ability of the team already on hand, further organization depth, etc., etc.

But anyway, here are ten things that jumped out at me:

#1.) The Mariners boasted the highest number of top 100 prospects, with nine. It’s certainly good news for Seattle, whose team struggled mightily in 2010, that help is on the horizon. A look deeper, however, shows that the system is far from the best around. The Mariners only had one of the top 46 prospects (admittedly, the #4, Michael Pineda), and I put three wildcards on there with youngsters Dylan Unsworth, Ji-Man Choi, and Brandol Perez. It’s a solid system, but don’t be fooled by the nine top 100 prospects—it’s probably somewhere between the fifth- and tenth-best system in baseball.

#2.) Atlanta has an unbelievable amount of young pitching. The Braves look set to dominate the NL East for years, as Julio Teheran, Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy, Arodys Vizcaino, and Randall Delgado all check in in the top 41. Assuredly, few others have Beachy as high as I, but even if you say I’m wrong on that, it’s still four imposing potential aces. Add #21 prospect Freddie Freeman in to anchor the offense, and the future is certainly bright for an already strong Atlanta team.

#3.) The non-Atlanta NL East teams lack much star talent. Florida had no prospects in the top 100. The Phillies had nobody in the top 50 (although Domonic Brown deserves to be there, of course), and the Mets just squeaked Lucas Duda (another guy who’s almost certainly in very few top 50s) in at #49. The Nationals have Bryce Harper, but their only other top 100 prospect is #84 Derek Norris. Given that these teams have to go up against the Atlanta juggernaut, they’re facing a steep uphill climb when it comes to homegrown impact talent.

#4.) Arizona’s in trouble. At least Boston and Florida have great front offices with established track records, and Boston has plenty of money to throw around. The Diamondbacks struggled this past season, and there don’t seem to be any new stars on the horizon, with Paul Goldschmidt the only entry on my top 100, and he just snuck on at #98 as it is. Granted, Arizona’s a young team with some nice already-in-the-bigs players, so they (and the Marlins, for that matter) at least have somewhere to look for All-Stars. Still, the big league team is going to have to improve a lot, and without any huge reinforcements, for Arizona to get back to .500, let alone the postseason.

#5.) At least in the minors, Dayton Moore is correctly copying the Braves model. The Royals are the only team with three top-15 prospects, with Wil Myers, Mike Moustakas, and Eric Hosmer looking like a huge middle-of-the-order force in a few years. Behind the three sluggers, they have a poor man’s Atlanta bevy of pitchers, led by John Lamb. If Lamb, Mike Montgomery, and Chris Dwyer can become rotation fixtures, this team could finally go somewhere.

#6.) The Indians are in better shape than you’d think. Cleveland tied Kansas City for second behind Atlanta with seven top 100 prospects, and even with that, I got comments last week about excluding Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis, who certainly each can build a strong case for inclusion as well. Jason Knapp should be phenomenal if he stays healthy, and there’s a long list of arms behind him. Chun-Hsiu Chen is one of the most overlooked catchers out there, but he’s excellent, and Nick Weglarz should give the order some punch. Could we be looking at a Cleveland/KC-dominated AL Central in 2015? Maybe, given Detroit and Chicago’s inability to come up with much in the way of impact minor league talent. Minnesota will always be around, though, as the Twins have six top 100 prospects.

#7.) The Rays and Yankees are going to have some ferocious pitching for years. The Rays placed two arms in the top 10 overall, with three others on the list as well. New York is the Atlanta of the AL, with potential aces littered around the farm system (most notably Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, and Andrew Brackman). Given that both teams already have great rotations, expect some of these guys to be hot trade chips as New York and Tampa Bay jockey for the top pieces at the trade deadline the next few years.

#8.) Of the World Series teams, Texas has more impact talent on the farm. While the Giants boast just one prospect in the top 90 (#19 Brandon Belt, who’s another guy I’m higher on than most), Texas has four quality arms and a potential impact outfielder on the list. Both teams traded away quite a bit of farm talent the past couple of years; Texas started out with more, and still has more.

#9.) The Orioles can’t catch a break on the farm. A few years ago, we were all talking about how the Orioles had this huge youth movement that just might work. It hasn’t, and all that youth is either in the majors already or dropped off the top 100. Sure, drafting Manny Machado may help, but the only Oriole besides him on the top 100 is Zach Britton, who doesn’t look to be an ace. Just like Arizona, you wonder what Baltimore can do: they don’t have a very good current team, and there looks to be little in the way of farmhands who could help push this team to .500, let alone anywhere near the division’s juggernauts. It’s time for another overhaul.

#10.) I’ve finally stopped being a homer! As an A’s fan, I’m always more familiar with Oakland prospects than any others—I check on them day-to-day, rather than just every so often. When I first started doing this list in 2008, it was marred by way too many Oakland selections—not because I wanted to pimp my team, but just because with all that extra knowledge, I lost my perspective somewhat. But we get better at this stuff with time, I suppose, and this year I only included three Oakland prospects. I had to indulge myself a bit with toolsy sleeper Rashun Dixon at #64, but I actually left hot prospect Grant Green off the list and barely snuck Michael Choice on at #96. And, as a fan, I feel like it’s still a solid system that has a chance to help the team—I just have it in better perspective now. Practice makes perfect, I suppose—not that I or anyone else could approach anything close to perfection in these rankings.

And…that’s it for my exhaustive twelve-week breakdown of my top 100 prospects. It’s been a fun ride, and I hope you enjoyed reading as much as I enjoyed writing.

I still have something like 17-18 weeks before the season starts back up and I slide back to TWiP’s in-season format, so I’m still pondering what to do with the column in the meantime. If you have any suggestions or ideas, I’d love to hear them in the comments. Anyway, I’m sure I’ll find something fun and prospect-y to cook up next Saturday!

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