The Wonderful World of Fantasy Baseball

With the Super Bowl behind us and harsh winter conditions finally beginning to let up (At least for now), our National pastime is once again ready to take center stage. Fans across the country can breathe a collective sigh of relief upon the return of the game that we all love. Baseball is in the air, and it’s truly a beautiful thing. For many teams, today is the reporting day for pitchers and catchers. Come to think of it, one week from today, spring training will be in full swing. However, for me, spring training is not only about the best players in the world preparing for what is sure to be an exciting year of baseball. That’s right, for me, spring training means that fantasy baseball is on the horizon.

Each year, it seems as though fantasy sports become more and more popular across the board. ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, and other sports websites offer free and easy-to-play fantasy sports, including everything from football to NASCAR. Yes, you read that correctly. Fantasy NASCAR does indeed exist. Unfortunately, fantasy curling hasn’t cracked the surface yet, but I really wouldn’t be surprised by anything at this point. Anyway, as anticipation of reality nears its peak, I’d like to take at look at fantasy.

Welcome to the wonderful world of fantasy baseball!

Some of you will be more excited than others about the approaching 2011 fantasy baseball season, and I understand that not everyone is involved in fantasy games. With that said, what’s not to love? There is no better way to get involved with the game of baseball without actually stepping on the field and playing the games. The managerial experience of drafting and running a team is one that is both unique and hard to come by. If you’re anything like me and you love to be wrapped up in statistics, fantasy baseball is extremely rewarding.

I am admittedly better at fantasy football than I am at baseball, but I actually play all four of the major sports. I have won my football league each of the last two years, mainly because I drafted the last two MVPs in Chris Johnson and Tom Brady. Fantasy baseball, on the other hand, has been filled with misfortunes for me. For example, Manny Ramirez was on my team the year of his 50-game suspension, and last year, I had to endure the loss of concussed first basemen Justin Morneau for about half of the season. At just 17 years old, I like to consider myself an experienced gambler (Do fantasy sports even count as gambling?).

Now, I could talk all I want about how fantasy sports require skill, which is at least true to some extent. There is no question that a wide range of baseball knowledge is beneficial. However, I would be lying if I told you that luck is not a factor whatsoever. So, before I sound like too much of an advertising guru attempting to sell the world on fantasy sports, let’s get into some of the interesting storylines in baseball from a fantasy perspective.

In a fantasy mock draft done by ten ESPN experts, the first five picks were Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera, Troy Tulowitzki, and Evan Longoria. Finishing out the first round were Carl Crawford, Roy Halladay, Adrian Gonzalez, David Wright, and Ryan Braun.

I agree with most of these picks, but I do question whether Wright and Braun are really first-round caliber players. Wright’s strikeouts have increased recently and he really hasn’t been the same since his outstanding 2008 season. Not to mention, I’m not sure I trust any Mets hitter in such a large ballpark like Citi Field. I have less concern about Braun, but his numbers from 2009-2010 decreased in the categories of batting average, home runs, and RBIs.

I really think Robinson Cano or Carlos Gonzalez (The first two picks of the second round) should be strong first round considerations. Both guys will hit for a very high average, drive in 100+ runs, and play excellent defense. These are two of the game’s most talented young superstars.

Generally, I shy away from taking pitchers in the first round, but it’s probably safe to make an exception for Roy Halladay. The Phillies lost some offense, but there’s no reason to think that Halladay won’t win 18-20 games and produces a sub-three ERA. Come to think of it, you can’t really go wrong with any Philadelphia starting pitcher.

Both of Boston’s big-name free agent acquisitions are in the top ten, and I couldn’t agree more. Crawford is the perfect all-around player who will fill the stat sheet with consistency. It seems like every analyst out there is high on Adrian Gonazalez, who should thrive in Fenway Park and in the middle of a potent Red Sox line-up. To me, Gonzalez is a top-five pick in just about any fantasy league.

It looks like Pujols will not reach a deal with the Cardinals before his imposed deadline, so his contract situation could be a forceful distraction. Then again, we are talking about the best player in baseball. He will put up big numbers just to further prove that he is deserving of baseball’s richest contract in history.

Now, let’s move on to some of the sleepers and busts for the 2011 season.

After coming out of nowhere to put up some great numbers in 2009, Matt Wieters struggled mightily last year. His name is now off the radar in fantasy drafts, but I expect him to bounce back from his sophomore slump nicely. As the Orioles look to improve, Wieters should be a major offensive force.

Watch out for Ryan Howard. The big Phillies slugger had a frustrating 2010 campaign, seeing his home run total go from 45 to 31. With Jayson Werth out of town, the Phillies will need Howard to come through with top-notch offensive power numbers. We know he is capable of MVP statistics, and I think he’s motivated to prove to us that he is the man in Philly.

Buster Posey is for real. After turning in one of the most impressive rookie seasons in recent memory leading to a World Series Title, Posey is ready right now to establish himself as an elite player in this league. The Giants will still lack offensive depth this year, but Posey is a guy that they can count on to produce. The sky is the limit for this kid, and he will only get better moving forward. All eyes will be on Joe Mauer in most fantasy drafts, so Posey would be a great middle round steal.

Adam Wainwright is a Cy-Young pitcher. Halladay, Lincecum, and Lee will absorb most of the attention as far as starting pitchers are concerned, so Wainwright could fall into the middle rounds. Believe me, this guy is as consistent as they come, and passing on him would be foolish. He has finished second and third respectively in Cy-Young voting for the last two seasons.

Be cautious when drafting Jayson Werth. Werth developed into a surprisingly outstanding hitter in Philadelphia, but in Washington, he does not have the talent around him. Pitchers can key in on Werth and Zimmerman, and I suspect that he will struggle this season. Maybe that gigantic contract was a mistake.

Derek Jeter is washed up. Reputation can only carry a player so far, and fantasy owners must forget about the name and take a long look at the stats. Last year’s .270 is scary, especially given Jeter’s age. He is slowing down quickly, and I would avoid the Hall-of-famer at all costs.

The Papelbon era may be over sooner rather than later in Boston. Papelbon had a career high eight blown saves and a 3.90 ERA last year. He seems to have lost some of that confidence and swagger that once made him so great, and with Bobby Jenks and Daniel Bard waiting to take over, Papelbon will likely have very little room for error.

As spring training kicks off and the players prepare for baseball, do your homework and make your fantasy baseball picks smart. Baseball is an unpredictable game, and that’s the beauty of it. Predictions and projections don’t always pan out, but maybe, just maybe, this could be the year that your team wins it all.