Breaking Down the Non-Roster Invitees: St. Louis Cardinals

Obviously, Cardinals fans everywhere are spending today worrying about the health of ace Adam Wainwright‘s elbow. That may make their interesting group of non-roster pitchers even more relevant, and I’m actually going to be profiling all nine (a first!) in this edition of notable NRIs. I’ll also be looking at four hitters.

RHP Miguel Batista—Now 40, Batista isn’t much of a useful arm anymore. He works exclusively with a fastball and cutter nowadays, and while he has surprising velocity for his age, he doesn’t have the precision command one would expect from such a veteran, and it’s not like he’s getting Rivera-esque movement on his cutter. He hasn’t been above replacement level since 2007, which was also the last time he walked under four batters per nine innings.

3B Matt Carpenter—A really interesting prospect, Carpenter is old for a minor leaguer at 25, and he has yet to play in Triple-A, but he’s a very polished hitter and excellent defensive third baseman. After hitting .316/.412/.487 in his first crack at Double-A last year, he’s knocking on the big league door, and he’s excellent insurance if David Freese struggles or gets hurt again. Don’t be shocked if he’s displaced Freese as the team’s third baseman by midseason.

OF Amaury Cazana-Marti—A Cuban who didn’t play US ball until he was 31, Cazana-Marti has done nothing but rake in Double-A and Triple-A, with a .323/.393/.531 career line in five seasons. Due to his age and lack of interesting defensive attributes (he’s just a decent corner outfielder), he’s never gotten a big league shot, and actually spent part of last year and all of 2009 in the Mexican League. He sure can hit minor league pitching, but the Cardinals have a somewhat crowded outfield picture; will they give a 36-year-old rookie a chance? He’d be better off in another organization.

RHP Brandon Dickson—A 26-year-old righthander, Dickson wasn’t considered much of a player of interest before the Wainwright news broke, but now he’s in the edge of the rotation picture. He put up solid numbers in Triple-A last season, with a 137/53 K/BB in 167 innings. A big, durable, innings eater, he’s got a solid breaking ball and a fastball in the 88-93 range. His changeup has improved to the point where it’s a viable third pitch, and Dickson has solid mechanics and throws downhill, helping his command. In short, he’s a nice back-of-the-rotation option who likely won’t ever amount to much more than an innings-eater, but he can help immediately.

C Steve Hill—In his one big-league game, Hill slugged an opposite-field home run, so that’s a good start. It’s no coincidence, either–few catchers boast Hill’s grade of power. Unfortunately, he doesn’t do a whole lot else, as he spent most of 2010 in Double-A at age 25, posting a 90/38 K/BB in 93 games. Worse yet, he allowed a ridiculous 19 passed balls in 69 games behind the plate, which is the sort of number recently converted guys and Rookie ball players get, not experienced 25-year-olds. Hill did at least gun down 37% of attempted basestealers–if his receiving ever comes around, he could be a solid offense-oriented backstop.

RHP Joe Kelly—A sinkerballer extraordinaire, Kelly should fit right into Dave Duncan’s two-seam fastball plan whenever he makes it to St. Louis. That’s a long way off–he spent all of 2010 in Low-A–but Kelly has a bright future and could develop into a solid mid-rotation groundballer for the Cardinals. This spring will be the big league staff’s first look at him, and the 22-year-old could be up in the second half of 2012 if all goes well.

RHP Lance Lynn—Lynn, like Dickson, has an opportunity to win the fifth starter’s job with a shutdown camp. More of a prospect than Dickson, but less refined, he posted a 4.43 FIP in Triple-A last year. The 23-year-old had a 141/62 K/BB but allowed 21 homers in 164 innings, losing his signature groundball ability. Hopefully, working with Duncan in the spring can get that back for him, and Lynn could break into the rotation this season.

RHP Shelby Miller—Miller is easily St. Louis’ best prospect, with a bigtime fastball/curveball combination that was too much for Low-A hitters even though he was just 19 years old. Miller posted a 140/33 K/BB in just 104 1/3 innings. He may start 2011 in Double-A if he looks good in camp–it’s possible he could pitch for the Cardinals before turning 21, particularly if they struggle to replace Wainwright (assuming Wainwright is really out for the season).

RHP Adam Ottavino—Yet another back-of-the-rotation candidate, Ottavino, unlike Dickson and Lynn, has pitched for the MLB squad before, with 22 1/3 rather ineffective innings last year. The hard thrower’s biggest issue has been his inability to get lefties out, which may mean a bullpen role is his future. At 25, he’s got to prove he can make it as a starter sooner rather than later, although his nine Triple-A starts in 2010 were quite solid. Ottavino fixed his longtime command issues in 2010, but he’s got to do a better job keeping the ball down and he’ll need to improve his changeup.

RHP Ian Snell—Snell continues to struggle after showing tremendous promise early in his career, as he posted a 6.41 ERA and 6.45 FIP last year with Seattle. An extreme flyballer, perhaps he could learn a thing or two from Duncan. Snell’s velocity has declined, and he never had much in the way of offspeed stuff to begin with, so he’s got to find something he does well if he’s going to get his career back on track. Like Ottavino, he may be better served as a fastball-slider reliever than a starter.

OF Nick Stavinoha—Stavinoha’s ripped Triple-A pitching apart, but his .234/.256/.325 MLB line wouldn’t clue one into that. He doesn’t have quite as much power as most Triple-A sluggers (career .301/.345/.469 in AAA), and his over-aggressive approach precludes him from hitting for the same high averages in the bigs as he does in the minors. If he ever learned how to lay off sliders, he could be a useful player, but that’s not a skill most players just suddenly pick up in their late twenties.

LHP Kevin Thomas—Another overlooked groundballer, Thomas threw 107 innings in High-A last year without allowing a single home run. The lefty also put up a 94/38 K/BB; while he’s already 24, those numbers put him squarely on the map. As one might expect, he’s a sinkerballer who pounds the bottom of the zone with a moving 88-92 mph heater. He’s also got a curveball and changeup that show promise. He could quickly become an organizational favorite thanks to his groundball ability.

LHP Raul Valdes—Valdes turned in a replacement-level performance with the Mets last year. The soft-tossing lefty boasts a good slider, but doesn’t have any other good pitches, can’t do much with righties, and has middling command. He’s a useful situational arm, and Tony La Russa loves lefties who can get lefties out, but he’s not really an impact player of any kind.