Big Game James vs. Price

Even though the Rays slim playoff hopes are all but over, their season was still a huge success when you consider their payroll, record, and the level of competition that they faced in their division. Through all the highs and lows this season, it was Tampa’s pitching staff that has carried this team to 83 wins (thus far). The only question that remains is this: Who was their best pitcher anyway? Most of us would say “James Shields” in a heartbeat, but according to WAR, they have been pretty much even with David Price having the slightest of edges.

James Shields’s 2.70 ERA is Halle Berry, while David Price’s 3.34 ERA is Anna Torv quality. It’s not bad, but it definitely isn’t as smokin’ as Shields’s mark. Now here’s where it gets interesting: David Price’s FIP is 3.15. That Shields guy’s FIP? 3.31. The reason for the disparity in Fielder Independent Pitching is the fact that Shields’s BABIP against is .260, while Price’s BABIP is an unlucky .280. Their peripherals are nearly the same, with Shields walking slightly less batters and Price having the advantage in strikeouts.

For as great of a statistic as FIP is, there is one flaw that must be accounted for; groundball outs. See, FIP mainly takes peripherals into account and does not award groundball pitchers nearly enough. No matter how great a strikeout is for a pitcher, it’s still nice- and important- to get that necessary groundball out and keep the ball in the park. James Shields’s GB% is currently 46.4, which is a bit better than Price’s total of 44.9. The difference might only account for a tenth of a point in FIP, but it is always good to note even the most minor of differences when statistically analyzing two pitchers who are of almost the same quality.

I alluded to the importance of keeping the ball in the ballpark, and this portion of a pitcher’s game is where it gets interesting with these two aces. xFIP is basically the same thing as FIP, except it takes into account HR/FB%. The theory is that a pitcher can’t really control how far a fly ball is, so a good portion of home runs are up to the hitter’s ability. Right now, Shields’s xFIP (3.14) is a meager six points higher than Price’s mark of 3.20. The reason being for this sudden flip is that Shields has a HR/FB% of 11, which is “bad luck”, while Price’s HR/FB% is 9.1. What I find interesting is that Shields not only gets more groundouts, but he has a higher infield fly ratio. The reason that Shields gives up more home runs is likely due to the fact that he relies on a changeup/curveball combo more than most other pitchers in the league. Price, on the other hand, throws his famed running fastball about 70 percent of the time.

At first glance, it seems like James Shields has clearly been the best pitcher on the Rays, but an in-depth look at the advanced statistics tells us a different story. While Shields has been the brightest ace on a top-notch Rays’ pitching staff, David Price hasn’t been far behind him. The easy way out would be to declare this a tie, but I think Shields’s control and ability to go deep into games gives Big Game James the edge over David Price. Another interesting thing to note is that Shields is one of the best pitchers in baseball at stopping baserunners, while Price has been below-average in this regard. This doesn’t really make much of a difference in the grand scheme of things, but it does make for an interesting closing note. After all, every little thing that you can do to help your team win ball games counts.