Red Sox Better Keep Papelbon
By Lew Freedman
If the Boston Red Sox let closer Jonathan Papelbon get away in free agency it will haunt them more than anything that might have happened on Halloween, or on the final day of the regular season against the Baltimore Orioles.
Yes, Papelbon made the critical mistake pitch with two outs and two strikes in the last game when the Sox lost and fell short of the playoffs. But he is no Bill Buckner, who let that ground ball through his legs against the Mets in the 1986 World Series and earned the scorn of Boston fans for a generation.
Sometimes the closer closes and sometimes he can’t close it out. It’s a risky business, an iffy business, and somehow the fatal pitch seemed to be the logical denouement of the Red Sox’s September collapse. But Papelbon has performed yeoman service for the Red Sox since 2005. He has been a four-time All-Star, collected 219 saves out of the Boston bullpen, including six straight seasons with a minimum of 31 saves and some years when his earned run average could not be seen without a microscope (as in 0.92 in 2006).
Outside of Mariano Rivera and a handful of others, closers do not have terrific, consistent longevity. Papelbon, at age 30, appears to be one of the exceptions. Yes, he had that 3.90 ERA year in 2010, but still collected 37 saves. If that’s his bad year, we’ll take it. A reliable closer is one of the most important positions that must be filled if a team is going to contend for a pennant.
Besides, Papelbon not only can throw just shy of 100 mph, he can dance up a storm. Have you ever seen the YouTube video of him doing a solid impersonation of Michael Flatley’s Riverdance–twice– after the Red Sox won the 2007 American League Championship Series and during the World Series parade? Priceless happy feet. It’s definitely worth a peek. But footwork aside, the work that Papelbon does with his right arm is not easily emulated.
Papelbon should be in demand as a free agent. Any team in need should be willing to ante up (and I mean he will command the usual millions, not be in the Albert Pujols/Prince Fielder payday class). That’s because Papelbon is a proven commodity, not a used-up commodity.
The entire closer business is a peculiar one. Every team in the majors needs a lights-out closers. Any team that doesn’t have one superior lights-out, late-inning thrower is doomed before the season starts. Bullpen-by-committee is one thing, as St. Louis manager Tony La Russa adroitly proved in this post-season. Closer-by-committee is a no-no. You need The Man.
To the degree baseball has come to rely on closers is insane. Starters who have given up just one run, a handful of hits, and are within one or two outs of a complete game frequently get sent to the showers in exchange for a closer. That often seems like overkill. What a team needs from a closer is a virtual infallibility in bailing them out of a late jam in a one-run game.
Another aspect of closer craziness, though, is how quickly managers lose faith in them. You can put together six great years, but then have a slump for one year and suddenly you are washed up. The pressure to finish close games has morphed into pressure to be perfect. Nobody can be, we all admit, but the expectation bar is set that high. If a closer has an off-year he frequently rebounds and resumes pitching at a high rate of performance, sometimes for several more years. Witness Billy Wagner.
If the Red Sox allow Papelbon to sign elsewhere it will be just more of the same recrimination over the great September fadeout. General manager Theo Epstein is gone to the Cubs. Manager Terry Francona is gone to the marketplace. If there is less interest in re-signing Papelbon it will be because Sox management acts with its broken heart rather than with its head.
Papelbon will sign with another team for millions of dollars. The Red Sox, hungry for that next pennant, will play reliever roulette, seeeking another closer with a good reputation and paying a fresh face millions of dollars to hold down the back end of the bullpen when the right answer is already clear and there.