Michael Pineda’s Rookie Season
Although I could become the next person out of the thousands to make this post about how Jeremy Hellickson didn’t deserve the AL Rookie of the Year, I will instead concentrate on looking into Michael Pineda‘s rookie season. He tailed off from a sizzling start to the season, but Pineda still finished with a 3.42 FIP and 9.11 strikeouts per nine innings. But more importantly for fans, Pineda has established himself as one of the hardest throwers in baseball with a fastball that averages 94.7 miles per hour.
Prince Pineda posted a 3.74 ERA, but his FIP and xFIP (3.53) were both lower. FIP is based off of peripherals, and his strikeout rate of over nine is certainly a noteworthy achievement. However, most hard-throwing rookies struggle with their command, but Pineda’s 2.89 BB/9 shows that he doesn’t really have an issue with walking too many batters.
Most strikeout pitchers usually have a higher LOB%, but Pineda’s 69.7 LOB% paints the picture of a pitcher who was unlucky. He also gave up a home run on a fly ball 9.0% of the time while pitching mostly in Safeco, and that’s a trend that won’t continue. Pineda may only allow a line-drive rate of 18.9%, but a troubling number is his 36.3 GB% in combination with a .258 BABIP.
Looking at the Heat Maps, it is evident that Michael Pineda’s approach isn’t very different from most pitchers. He spots his fastball away, he mainly throws his slider to righties and always throws it down and away, and he only really uses his changeup against lefties if at all. What catches my eye is his O-Swing% of 33.4 and his Zone% of 47.9. It is evident that Pineda throws lots of first pitch strikes and attacks hitters, but he also gets them to chase by putting them into a hole. The rookie’s swinging strike percentage of 11.8 is a very healthy number, and it definitely shows us that his low LOB% is due to a lack of luck.
However, that doesn’t really explain his low BABIP; yet. When hitters chase Pineda’s pitches, they don’t make much contact (60.2 O-Contact%) which means that his low BABIP isn’t a product of inducing weak contact. This is where Pineda’s relatively low LD% becomes useful, as line drives easily have the most impact in whether or not a batted ball becomes a hit. Pitchers who have low groundball rates have less of a chance of giving up hits, but they have more of a chance of giving up home runs. Thus. the 0.95 HR/9.
Michael Pineda has a lively heater and an absolutely filthy slider, and his peripherals are outstanding. Pineda’s true value lies between his ERA of 3.74 and his FIP of 3.42 (as with most pitchers). Pineda had a tERA of 3.42 and a SIERA of 3.36, and I also believe that his true value in 2011 is closer to his 3.42 FIP. Pineda does benefit quite a bit from pitching in Safeco, because his BABIP and HR/FB% would not be as friendly in another ballpark. Pineda does use the field to his advantage- much like Jered Weaver– and that K% of 24.9 isn’t something you see every day. Pineda will develop, and his numbers are incredibly difficult to post as a rookie. It is exciting to think about what he could become, and he gives the M’s a formidable one-two punch with King Felix.