Joe Nathan and Grady Sizemore Sign New Deals
Two injury-prone players who used to be among the biggest stars in the game were able to obtain new contracts this offseason. Both players do carry risk with them, but both deals were fundamentally different because of the way their contracts dealt with this risk. Joe Nathan was signed by the Texas Rangers to two-year deal worth at least $14.5 million, and Grady Sizemore was given a one-year deal worth $5 million after the Indians rejected a $9 million dollar option earlier this offseason.
There were many teams interested in taking a gamble on Grady Sizemore, with the Colorado Rockies and the Boston Red Sox being among those teams. Sizemore’s contract does include incentives that could make this deal worth $9 million, but he would have to attain the 450 PA threshold for any of these incentives to kick in. This is a low-risk deal that definitely accounts for Sizemore’s inability to stay healthy, and it will reward him appropriately for actually getting on the field. But the question remains, how effective will Sizemore be if he’s healthy?
Between the years 2005 and 2008, Grady Sizemore was arguably the best center fielder in the game. Not only could he hit for power, but his main assets may have been his speed and defense. With all the surgeries he’s had, I doubt that Grady will be anywhere near as effective on the basepaths. The drop off in speed won’t help in center, because that’s the position where speed is at a premium. One could suggest moving him to left field, but I doubt that he has the same power as he did in 2008. Moving him to a position in which offensive production (mostly power) is paramount would greatly hurt his value.
As Sizemore’s power as diminished, he’s tried to over-compensate by swinging at more pitches and trying to generate more contact. Contact is good, but weak contact can make you about as valuable as the polar opposite Dave Kingman approach.
Even though there are a lot of questions surrounding Sizemore’s play, there is still a slight chance that he comes right in and plays solid ball. He won’t return to his former glory, but there is a chance that Grady changes his approach or is healthy enough to maintain a solid level of production. I honestly doubt it, even though Sizemore is one of my favorite players, but there was very little risk to this deal and the upside far outweighs the minor consequences of Sizemore falling short of a 1.5 WAR-ish season.
The Joe Nathan deal also involves a player whose career has been recently derailed by serious injuries, and one can only hope that another fan favorite is able to return to his former glory. However, it’s been two years since Nathan was actually worth even a tenth of a win above replacement, but there are some signs of optimism in the 44.2 innings that Nathan pitched in 2011.
Nathan struck out 8.66 batters per nine innings last season, which is pretty good considering the severity of the injuries that transpired (Tommy John) earlier. At 37, we don’t know if he can be healthy for an entire season, and that’s not a question you want to ask yourself when you give a reliever $7 million per season.
On the bright side, Nathan got consistently better after his DL stint in May and June, and he had a 2.74 FIP in the months of September and October. If Nathan is fully healthy, he will certainly be a tough closer to beat. Nothing is certain at the age of 37, and $7 million is quite a chunk of change for a closer. He would have to be worth around 1.6 WAR to fulfill his contract, and he should be able to do that easily. That is, if he’s healthy.
I think Joe Nathan should be good to go, but the Texas Rangers are taking a gamble in giving him a multi-year deal worth that much money (again, he’s a reliever). However, the risk is actually a good one when you look at a couple of different things. First, the Rangers have enough talent in the bullpen to recover if the deal doesn’t workout. Although they will surely lose money if he can’t even pitch, the Rangers aren’t exactly the Padres in terms of payroll. The Nathan signing also allows Neftali Feliz to finally best utilize his talents and start in the rotation. Nathan is definitely one of the premier closers in the game when healthy, and those last two words are going to be so difficult to predict. I would say that this deal is too risky from a purely financial standpoint, but the Rangers are one of the few teams out there who have the resources to delve into this venture. And thus, they will be the ones to reap the rewards if Nathan pitches like it’s 2008 (or even ’09).