It’s All About Timing

~Queue up the Rolling Stones version of “Time Is On My Side.”~

C.J. Wilson is not a great pitcher. He is a good pitcher. Not great. But his free agency timing makes that classification moot. Wilson will command a great pitcher’s contract this off-season.

Take last season for example. The free agent market for starting pitchers included Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke. Both of those two pitchers fall under the great category, far better talent-wise than Wilson. This season’s crop of starting pitching is so bare, Wilson, by default, becomes the best pitcher available, at least based on interest level.

Cliff Lee was signed by the Phillies to a five-year, $120 million deal after posting 5.4 WAR during his previous three years. Lee’s WAR is misleading as much of his dominance is derived from his postseason performance. Zack Greinke, who signed a significantly smaller deal with the Brewers for four-years, $38 million, accumulated an impressive 15.5 WAR over his previous three seasons. Both Lee and Greinke had little competition during their free agent year, but then again, they would have still been the best two on the market had they been free agents this year.

Wilson is talented, but pales in comparison to Lee and Greinke. In two of his seven years with the Rangers, Wilson posted negative WAR. Overall, he has racked up 10.2 WAR. Not a bad total, but still an average of just 1.5 WAR per season. While Wilson has had an impressive 2011, his career totals don’t necessarily jump out as great free agent quality.

Wilson has only pitched 200 or more innings twice in his career. He may be able to continue shouldering that type of work load, but it’s too early to tell how he will hold up. If I’m investing a big long-term contract on any pitcher this off-season, it’d be on Mark Buehrle.

Buehrle doesn’t seem to be getting quite as much attention as Wilson. He’s had some looks, been given some offers, but Wilson seems to be the focal-point of this year’s available starting pitchers. Buehrle though has quietly put together a very nice career for himself.

In 12 seasons, Buehrle logged 200 or more innings 11 times. In his career he has built up an impressive 46.6 WAR. His last three years shows he is still a productive pitcher. He has a shot at winning over 200 games in his career, and will bring true left-handed talent to whatever team signs him. Buehrle consistently keeps his walk percentage around 5%.  His HR/9 ratio has been under 1 for the last two seasons.  Simply put, Buehrle is good.

While Buehrle still doesn’t get the great rating Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke get, he provides a much better option for a team looking for proven talent at starting pitcher.