White Sox extend John Danks
It looks like the Chicago White Sox won’t be trading their staff ace (keyword: staff) after all, as they have just given John Danks a $65 million extension. He is consistently improving from year-to-year when looking at his peripherals, and the Sox were able to get a nice deal off in the end. I think people misinterpreted General Manager Kenny Williams when he said that the team is “rebuilding”, because it really seems like Williams is trying to “retool” this team and not rebuild it.
John Danks was worth 3.2 WAR last season, and he’s about a 3-3.5 WAR pitcher overall. I would say he is closer to 3 WAR, but he is 26 and should consistently be worth around this much over the course of this deal. A win will likely be worth- on average- around $5 million during these five seasons, so Danks will need to be worth about 13 WAR to match the value of this contract. An average of 2.6 WAR per season over these five years is definitely achievable for Danks, because the only time he wasn’t worth this much was in his rookie year (0.8 WAR). It is highly unlikely that Danks will be worth under 1 WAR in 139 innings again, and Danks has been remarkably consistent over that past four seasons.
Although the White Sox may have been able to obtain a good prospect or two in return for Danks, I doubt that teams would have given that much for a player with one season left on his contract. It doesn’t seem likely at this point, but the Sox could still deal Danks if they really wanted to. In fact, one could argue that he is more valuable after this contract. A five-year contract for a 26-year-old starter who has remained consistent and healthy isn’t one that will “bust” very often and the upside outweighs the downside; especially when it is a couple of million dollars under market value per season.
That being said, there is more to this deal than meets the eye. Mat Latos did net the Padres a huge haul from the Cincinnati Reds, so it is plausible to think that John Danks could have given Kenny Williams a nice haul of prospects. However, it doesn’t seem like that was the case; if it was, the Sox would have traded him already. Then again, this extension might just be a “sweetener” for a team looking to get him, and that obviously makes a great deal of sense. It’s the best way of maximizing one of Danks’s most attractive qualities on the trading block- for GMs, not chicks- his youth and upside.
Assuming Danks will be a 3 WAR pitcher during these five seasons, he should be worth $15 million per season and 15 WAR during these five seasons. That’s 2 WAR more than what they are paying him, and about $10 million more than the value given to him. Five year deals don’t come without risk, but Danks is one of those young pitchers who doesn’t carry much risk.
The thing is, Danks would have earned five years and $75 million on the open market, as he is a lefty starter who is just 26. The White Sox didn’t like the offers they saw, and they just increased Danks’s value by giving this extension to him. I would rather have a good, young starter for five seasons than one on a one-year rental. I mean, what good is the youth if it is only for one year? If the Sox are still interested in dealing him, they just helped themselves. And, even if they do want to keep Danks, they just locked up their best pitcher and didn’t give him too much in the process. Bottom line, this was a win for Kenny Williams and the Chicago White Sox.
Be sure to check out all of Call to the Pen’s transaction breakdowns for the 2011-12 offseason.