How Different Will 2012 Be?

It is a new year. Everyone has catalogued their resolutions about how to make 2012 a new and improved model over 2011 and man I sure wouldn’t mind that. Still, despite not being under the influence of alcoholic beverages, wacky tabacky, or any other performance-enhancing illegal substance, I decided to retain my allegiance to recklessness and take an early crack at predicting the final standings for the next Major League baseball season.

Relying upon what I knowright now, as opposed to being able to see the future and learn who Prince Fielder will sign with, or which player might tear a knee ligament water skiing in the Bahamas I can’t say this prediction will hold up until opening day. But glancing at the final 2011 standings I had a very weird passing thought. Although players have jumped teams in free agency like kangaroos, although teams have spent trillions of dollars massaging their rosters, other than the coincidence factor I would not be completely shocked if the standings turned out to be exactly the same at the end of next September as they were at the end of last September.

I realize that sounds daffy and I am not saying I believe it, but after looking things over it is not impossible. Again, lacking a Magic Eight Ball I am not forecasting this unlikely scenario. Heck, weathermen have a lot more technological help than I and they can’t get things right half the time.

Armed with just the facts, years of following the game, and intuition, I am going out on the narrow ledge of a cliff right here to predict the final 2012 standings, division by division.

This is how the teams finished in the American League in 2011: AL East, New York, Tampa Bay, Boston, Toronto, Baltimore; AL Central, Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago, Minnesota, Kansas City; AL West, Texas, California, Oakland, Seattle.

This is how I think the AL teams will finish in 2012: AL East, Boston, New York, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Baltimore; AL Central, Detroit, Kansas City, Minnesota, Cleveland, Chicago; AL West: Texas, California, Seattle, Oakland. The AL East remains the best division, but the highest quality dogfight for a divisional title is between Texas and California. If they Yankees obtain another front-line starter, they win the AL East.

This is how the teams finished in the National League in 2011: NL East, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Washington, New York, Florida; NL Central, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Houston; NL West, Arizona, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Colorado, San Diego.

This is how I think the NL teams will finish in 2012: NL East, Philadelphia, Washington, Miami, Atlanta, New York; NL Central, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Houston, Chicago; NL West, Los Angeles, Arizona, San Francisco, San Diego, Colorado. Brutal NL East division. Washington’s a comer. The Dodgers are revived.

Both Chicago teams will finish in last place. And, oh yeah, Philadelphia wins the World Series over Texas. After losing their third straight World Series, the Rangers become the Buffalo Bills of unrequited baseball championship dreams.