Los Angeles Angels extend Howie Kendrick
Second baseman Howie Kendrick had a huge breakout season in 2011 and was worth 5.8 WAR; easily a career-high for the man who was once known as a bust. Kendrick achieved this total through excellent defense and quality hitting (120 wRC+). The Los Angeles Angels have rewarded their star 2B with a four-year extension worth $33.5 million, and this $8.4 million committed to Kendrick per season is definitely going to a worthy cause. Kendrick will have to be worth around 2 WAR per season (the league average) to be worth this contract, and he has been worth more than that amount during every season of his career except 2010 (1.9 WAR). This was a great move made by the Angels front office, and it is one that should not go unnoticed; even in an offseason filled with intrigue and big signings.
Giving an extension to Howie Kendrick is definitely a great way to end your payroll spending budge, because it isn’t often that you get to extend one of the better second basemen in the league to a deal under $1o million. This is a 4 WAR player who is 28 and will have three to four more seasons in his prime. With this information in mind, the parameters- namely the years- of this deal are not coincidental. The Angels front office knows that Kendrick is going to produce at a high rate over the course of the next few years and keeping a talented keystone sacker is definitely a priority for this team.
The question then becomes, will the Angels win this division? This offseason, they added two elite players in Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson; it’s obvious that this team wants to win. Their only source of competition is the Texas Rangers at this point, but they still don’t have the offense to compete with Texas despite these moves. It will be an interesting battle at the top for sure and extending Kendrick gives this team more hope for the next few years. The Angels are also in talks with shortstop Erick Aybar for a possible extension, and the team plans on keeping their high-ranking double-play combo in tact for a few more years.
39 fans on FanGraphs project Howie Kendrick as a 4.5 WAR player next year, while Bill James sees him as a 3.8 WAR second baseman during the 2012 MLB season. 3.8 WAR players are worth about $19 million under the assumption that one win is worth $5 million. If one win is seen as $4.75 million, then James has him as an $18 million player. Last season, a win correlated to about $4.53 million, which would make Kendrick a $17 million player.
It seems pretty clear that Howie Kendrick is worth above $15 million, and the Angels are giving him half of his market value. This has to be one of the best moves during this free agent period, and Kendrick’s breakout year shows that he is undergoing a legitimate improvement.
The devil usually likes to lurk in a particular detail when talking about advanced statistics, and the Lord of the Flies can be found hiding out in batted ball statistics (most namely BABIP). However, his .338 BABIP is right in line with his predicted total for next season and is right where his career average is. Kendrick won’t hit for as much power as he did last year, but he has improved in this area. A UZR of 16.7 is not likely to be repeated, but Kendrick is an improved defensive player who should have a UZR over 5 next year.
The one worry is his strikeout rate which continues to creep up, but his BB/K rate has remained constant due to an increase in walks. Pitchers are throwing less strikes at Kendrick, and he is beginning to chase those pitches more often; his contact is suffering as a result of this. However, this drop-off only occurred in his breakout 2011 season, but it will be interesting to see if he can cope with the adjustments that pitchers will inevitably make against him.
Howie Kendrick is one of the five or six best second basemen in baseball, and he should continue to be a 4 WAR player over the span of this contract. The Los Angeles Angels really got a steal here, and this bargain will pay off for them during this division race. Saving money that can be used on offensive upgrades elsewhere is also of importance to a contender, and they gave a star a contract that is well below market value.
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