What’s With the Market for Edwin Jackson?
By Kyle Davis
Let’s compare two unknown players using statistics compiled over the last three seasons. Well, one of them is most likely going to be somewhat known, what with the title of this post and your ability to read words and comprehend them and everything. We’ll take a look at some notable stats of two pitchers. One of them will be Edwin Jackson, the other will be a well-known and well thought of fellow who, when listed in comparison to Jackson, will serve to shock and illuminate just how wacky the perceived value of Edwin Jackson has been lately. This is usually how these kinds of comparisons go. It’s a popular device in internet baseball writing. This is my first time using it so I’m pretty excited. To wit:
Player A (2009-2011)
IP: 623.0
BB/9: 3.03
K/9: 7.08
HR/9: .92
BABIP: .307
ERA: 3.96
FIP: 3.90
xFIP: 3.93
Player B (2009-2011)
IP: 629.0
BB/9: 1.09
K/9: 4.48
HR/9: .93
BABIP: .297
ERA: 3.91
FIP: 4.12
xFIP: 4.34
Player A is, you guessed it, our good friend and currently unemployed baseball pitcher Edwin Jackson. Player B is Miami Marlin Mark Buehrle, who signed almost two months ago a four-year contract worth 58 million dollars. This strikes me as odd. When comparing Jackson and Buehrle over the last three seasons, they seem to have contributed to their teams strikingly similar value. The only notable disparity comes when we look at how many batters each walks, and how many batters each strikes out. Jackson walks more and strikes out more. Buehrle, less of both. Looking at results using both traditional and advanced metrics show two very evenly matched pitchers. They’re also both World Series champions who have thrown a no-hitter in their career (but score one for Mark and his additional Perfect Game). So why is Buehrle down in some Floridian hot tub soaking it up with his soul mate while Jackson is still out in the cold waiting for a compelling job offer?
Like most things in this life, there seems to be a bit of narrative force at play here. Buehrle, celebrated this offseason for his durability and consistency, seems to have been granted the coveted “Crafty Lefty” tag by many, one that implies a certain veteran and cerebral mastery of the art of pitching. He reinforces this notion by mixing a good deal of offerings on the mound and throwing a fastball that doesn’t exactly blow batters away. His low walk totals present a poised strike-thrower who controls himself on the mound and allows his defense to help him get outs, while a notorious pickoff move cements Mark Buehrle’s legend as a no-nonsense kind of guy who exploits every advantage he can to get valuable outs for the good of the team.
On the other hand, despite an almost identical number of innings pitched in the last three seasons, Edwin Jackson seems to suffer from a perceived lack of consistency—perhaps due to his higher walk totals masking his superior velocity and strikeout ability. People hate walks, they’re really annoying and boring to watch and they tend to stick with you after a pitcher puts a couple runners on base for free right before a run-scoring hit. He’s also right-handed, and represented by Scott Boras, two things Buehrle can lord over him in the arena of public perception. None of these things change that fact that Jackson is just about equally as effective as Buehrle when it comes to getting professional baseball players out.
To be completely fair, things do seem to be turning around for Jackson lately. Where there were once reports of one-year offers there is now perhaps a three-year deal to be had out there, and maybe even an option year on top of that. Scott Boras, well-known for being kind of ridiculous and willing to wait until the final hour to finalize an agreement, could also be pulling some strings here. After what happened with Prince Fielder, don’t be surprised if Jackson signs a six-year deal worth $100 million the day before Spring Training. We should never doubt Scott Boras. Never. All that being said, the way the market for starting pitchers has gone this offseason, both in free agency and the trade market, a proactive organization would have been wise to have already locked Jackson down. And despite the burgeoning interest in Jackson’s services lately, it’s still more than likely that whoever does finally sign him is going to get a bargain, and potentially a steal. The guy is a solidly above average starting pitcher and deserves to be paid like one. A lot like that Mark Buehrle.