Why Michael Pineda (Probably) Isn’t the Answer for New York

The narrative seems almost too good to be true. Jesus Montero, slugging prospect extraordinaire, heads to Seattle to add some pop to the Mariners’ punchless lineup, while Michael Pineda, with a brilliant year in the majors already under his belt, enters the blinding spotlight of Yankee Stadium to displace Ivan Nova as Robin to CC Sabathia’s Batman. However, I’d caution fans of the Yankees to temper their expectations for Pineda as he settles in to his new home in the Big Apple.

While Pineda’s certainly got nasty stuff, he’s got several factors working against him. His arsenal consists of a mid-90s fastball that he can pump up to 98 when he needs it, and a biting mid-80s slider. Together, those two pitches make up well over 90% of the pitches Pineda throws, though he’s been working on mixing in a changeup so he’ll have an offspeed pitch that’s effective against lefties. However, until he can develop that pitch and locate it with confidence, he’s still a very raw two-pitch starter. Baseball is a game of adjustments, and it’s very tough to survive and avoid becoming predictable with so few options. Many young pitchers spend a year or more surviving on pure stuff before the league figures out how to attack them, as they receive increased scrutiny in the form of advance scouting. If they can’t adjust to the league when opposing hitters catch up to them, it’s not uncommon for them to flame out and fail to live up to the promise of their rookie season. With only two pitches at his disposal, the development of Pineda’s changeup with be a key factor in his success or failure in New York.

Pineda’s being placed in a very tough situation, and the lofty expectations currently being placed on him seem to be setting him up for failure. Pineda had an impressive 2011 campaign, but pitched half his games at spacious Safeco Field, which according to StatCorner had a 95/82 park factor for home runs for lefty and righty hitters, respectively. New Yankee Stadium has been a slugger’s paradise since opening in 2009, and last season had home run factors of an astronomical 143/115. In addition, Pineda’s moving from a club with a solid, if unspectacular, defensive infield, to one where he’ll be pitching in front of the aging gloves of Jeter and A-Rod. Add in the move to the always competitive AL East, and Pineda has his work cut out for him.

It’s not like I expect a complete meltdown from Pineda, but it seems to me that most people believe Pineda slots in as a solid number two starter behind CC, and I’m a little skeptical. Pineda certainly has the stuff to perform at that level when he’s on, but he’s young and will likely be prone to stretches of inconsistency, especially in the pressure cooker that is New York. In a five-game divisional series, if a team is able to set up their rotation optimally, their ace would usually pitch game one, and then line up for a second start in game 4, leaving the team’s second starter on the bump for a potential season-deciding game 5. While the Yankees have a talented stable of pitchers between Pineda, free agent signing Hiroki Kuroda, and incumbent Ivan Nova, they don’t have a pitcher who I think they’d feel comfortable sending out for that game 5 expecting with a high level of confidence that they’d get a high-quality outing.

While Pineda isn’t necessarily the answer at the two for the Yankees, I don’t think that means this trade was lopsided. Pineda’s flawed, but so is Jesus Montero. Montero’s bat is special, and he’ll get at-bats regardless of where he ends up defensively, but he’s much more valuable as a catcher, and his sheer size makes it very hard to believe he can take the beating required of an everyday big-league backstop. The Yankees also acquire a very interesting piece in minor league starter Jose Campos. Only 18, Campos has a long way to go before he makes a big-league impact, but his numbers at Seattle’s Low-A affiliate in Everett last season (81.1 IP, 2.32 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 1.4 BB/9) look a little like Pineda’s stats from his first full-season experience as a 19-year old at class A Wisconsin (138.1 IP, 1.95 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9). While Campos is far from a lock to develop along the same path as Pineda, he’s raw and has pure stuff, allowing the team to dream on him developing very much in the mold of Pineda. Campos currently relies on a mid-90s fastball and biting slider, with a developing curve as his third offering (sound familiar?).

Overall, Pineda (and Kuroda, who was added on the same day) will add the arms the Yankees need to compete in the regular season, but with their powerful lineup their pitching was probably good enough to make the playoffs anyway. Where their new additions can help them is in the playoffs, when the importance of pitching depth is intensified and where they simply fell short in 2011. While the addition of Pineda doesn’t make the Yankees’ rotation a dominant one, it might just make it good enough, and with the big bats up and down the team’s lineup providing support, good enough might just mean a shot at a World Championship. The Yankees won’t go in to 2012 as the clear favorites for World Series glory, as they have so many times before, but their additions move them from longshots to among the frontrunners.

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