Can Rich Harden Make it Back?
By now, we have the image burned into our minds. No matter whether you read the book or watched the movie (a surprising Oscar candidate), Moneyball has cemented into our minds the picture of Billy Beane preparing for draft day. Surrounded by aging scouts, young statistical analysts, and of course his ego, we can see Beane’s mind working. Always looking for the best player for the money, weighing the cost verse benefit in a split second. So it makes it easy for us to imagine Beane and the Oakland A’s on draft day in June of 2000. With the 510th overall pick, the Athletics drafted Rich Harden out of Central Arizona College. Now, twelve years later, Harden will have to work harder than he ever has to return to a Major League rotation.
According to a report by the San Francisco Chronicle, Harden is having surgery to repair a torn ligament in his throwing shoulder. He has pitched (rather ineffectively) with the torn ligament since 2007, but he has reached a point in which surgery may be his only option to return to the form that made him one of the most exciting young pitchers at one time. Conversely, surgery may be the option that forces Harden out of the game for good.
When Harden was signed on May 18, 2001, the A’s and Billy Beane surely had no idea he would solidify himself as an above-average Major League starter. But that’s exactly what happened. Drafted in the 17th round, 10 picks behind another American League West mainstay in Mike Napoli, Harden fought his way to the big league club.
In his first minor league season, playing low-A ball for the Northwest League’s Vancouver Canadians, Harden flashed his ability to make batters miss his pitches. He struck out 12.1 batters per nine innings over the course of 74.1 innings pitched in 2001. He showed much of the same in 2002. Between high-A ball in the California League and double-A ball in the Texas League, Harden combined to strike out 11.0 batters per nine. He certainly earned his call-up to triple-A.
In 2003, Harden pitched in two games at double-A before moving on to Sacramento of the Pacific Coast League. A predominantly hitter-friendly league, Harden still managed to succeed in the PCL. He pitched in 16 games for Sacramento in 2003, struck out 9.2 batters per nine, and posted a 3.15 ERA. On July 21, 2003, Harden earned his Major League debut.
Pitching at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Harden got his first big league start. And he dazzled. He went 7 innings, gave up just one run, walked 2, gave up 4 hits, and struck out 4 batters. He took the no-decision, but he made his mark. Harden would become a mainstay with Oakland from there, but only when he wasn’t injured.
In 2003, Harden pitched in 13 games. His ERA+ of 100 was right at league average, but he managed to strikeout 8.1 batters per nine in his first season. In his first full season, 2004, Harden’s K/9 ratio dropped to 7.9, but he was able to pitch in 31 games. He lowered his ERA to 3.99, good enough for a 114 ERA+. Unfortunately, that was the last season in which he pitched more than 150 innings.
A litany of injuries besieged this promising young pitcher. On his way to being an ace in a rotation that included Barry Zito and Dan Haren, Harden was cut down by an oblique injury followed by a shoulder injury. In 2005, Harden pitched in only 22 games, but still managed some very impressive numbers. He was 10-5 with a 2.53 ERA and he averaged 8.5 strikeouts per nine. Yet, the injury situation would continue to get worse.
Because of two extended stays on the disabled list in 2006, Harden only pitched in nine games during the 2006 season. He was 4-0 with a 4.24 ERA. In 2007, when it seems things couldn’t get any worse, Harden only appeared in seven games. 2007 was the season Harden claims he first tore the capsule in his right shoulder.
He worked his way back in 2008, and showed signs of returning to form and putting the injuries behind him. Harden pitched in 25 games, compiled a 10-2 record, and posted a 2.07 ERA in time split between Oakland and the Chicago Cubs. He followed that up with 26 starts in 2009 with the Cubs, going 9-9 with a 4.09 ERA. However, his stuff had changed. His velocity was lower, and he was struggling to pitch deeper into games.
In 2007, Harden’s fastball velocity was clocked at an average of 94.1 mph according to Fangraphs. It dropped to as low as 90.7 in 2010 with the Rangers before showing a slight uptick to 91.6 last season. Harden says the torn capsule in his shoulder led to the decreased velocity. This of course led to an increase in contact percentage among batters he faced. In 2007, his contact percentage for pitches inside the zone was 74.2%. By last season, that number had jumped to 83.4%. In addition, his swinging strike percentage dipped from its peak of 16.2% in ’07 to 7.7% in 2010 with the Rangers. It jumped back up to 12.2% last season.
Rich Harden should be entering the prime of his career. At 30 years old, he should be one of the most dominant pitchers in the league. Unfortunately, injuries have prevented that from happening. Now, he is shutting himself down for the entire 2012 season and getting surgery to repair an injury he’s been struggling with since 2007. The road to recovery will be a difficult one, but not impossible. Harden’s stuff has dimished due to injury, but if this surgery can get him back anywhere close to his 2007 self, he will be able to return to the league. Even if Harden returns with similar stuff to what he had in 2011, he will likely find another team to pitch for, but it would be very unlikely that the team signing him makes him a starter. Of course, the surgery could be successful from a medical standpoint while ruining any chance of Harden pitching again. There is always the possibility that the surgery will further diminish his velocity, do away with his movement, and make his pitches all the easier to hit.
As a free agent, Harden is in a very precarious position. Best case scenario for him would see a return to a Major League rotation as a number 4 or 5 starter. He has likely seen the end of his days competing for the title of ace. Worst case scenario sees Harden out of the league all together. The outcome, when Harden attempts a return in 2013, is likely somewhere in between. It’s a shame to see a pitcher with such a high level of talent unable to use that talent due to injury, but that’s part of the game. The 17th round draft pick has already exceeded expectations. Of those taken in the 17th round in 2000, Harden is one of only seven players to make the Major Leagues. As tough as it may be to swallow, Harden has had a successful career even if this surgery forces him to hang ’em up.
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