Should the Baltimore Orioles give Adam Jones an extension?
The Baltimore Orioles and center fielder Adam Jones reached an agreement Tuesday night on a one-year $6.15 million contract with $50K in performance bonuses according to MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli. The arbitration hearing was scheduled for Friday. The Orioles offered Jones $5 million while he requested $7.4 million. The Orioles and Jones have had only preliminary discussions about a long term contract. Orioles’ general manager Dan Duquette has already suggested that the team will not speak about an extension during the season. Jones is under Orioles control through the 2013 season. Is Adam Jones the type of player the Orioles should think about building around and offer him a long term contract? Let’s delve into the numbers and see what they say.
Jones had a career year in 2011. It was a season that many have been waiting for from Jones. He mustered career highs in G, HR, RBI, SB, SLG%, ISO, wRC+ and WAR. Below is a chart of the Jones’ four seasons with the Orioles.
Jones was a highly touted player in the Seattle Mariners organization. He was the 37th overall pick in the 2003 draft after his senior year in high school. He was traded to the Orioles in February 2008 as part of the Erik Bedard deal. The Orioles placed Jones into the starting lineup for the 2008 season and he had a nice rookie campaign. He was an All-Star selection in 2009 and despite statistical evidence to the contrary, Jones won a gold glove in the same season.
Progressively his runs created against the league rate and his WAR figures continue to improve. It is hard to remember that he is still only 26 years old (he turns 27 on 8/1/12) because his first full season was at the age of 22. His bat and his speed are his true weapons. His fielding is actually a detriment to his WAR numbers.
Jones’ biggest issue at the plate is a high strikeout rate combined with poor plate discipline in respect to drawing walks. Jones is a free swinger with a 75.8% contact rate, which is nothing special. This leads to a career OBP of .319 which is exactly where he was in 2011.
Jones’ possesses legit 25-30 HR power. He is just now reaching his peak at the plate, so 30 home runs in 650 plate appearances is very attainable. He has above average speed, but his position in the lineup (about half of his plate appearances in 2011 came in the three hole) precludes him from stealing many bases. So, Jones is now being asked to be a run producer, not a table setter, thus the stolen base figures sitting in the low double digits. If let loose, he could probably steal 20 bases in a full season.
In order for Jones to take his game to the next level and possible elite status, he has to severely cut down on the strikeouts and drastically increase his walk rate. Both of these items are preventing him from getting better pitches to hit. Pitchers know that he will swing often at balls out of the zone. PITCHf/x data shows a 39.3% career rate swinging at balls out of the zone. Predictably this does not produce great results as witnessed by the 60.8% contact rate for balls out of the zone. In general he swings at 53.8% of all pitches thrown to him. The league average was 45.6% in 2010.
Using the simple WAR calculator provided by Lewie Pollis from Wahoo’s on First, Jones is set to put forward his finest WAR production. I used the following stats in the calculator; 27 HR, 35 BB, 110 K, .317 BABIP, 650 PA, 155 G, defensive grade of 5 (1-7 scale 1 being best) and 2 for speed (1-5 scale 1 being best). These numbers are slightly better than FanGraphs’ multiple projections. This produced a 3.5 WAR which is a reasonable upward trend for a player hitting his prime.
With these estimations in mind, should the Orioles look to lock down Jones for four years after this season? The Orioles have an advantage if they do the deal before the 2013 season while they still maintain control of Jones. A four year extension after this season would make Jones 30/31 years old in the final year of the contract. That is probably the perfect time for the team and Jones to reassess the market.
In my opinion, it is fair to say that Jones could continue an upward trend in WAR into the low 4’s in 2013 through 2015 with the beginnings of a decline in 2016. If he is able to string together years of 4, 4.2, 4 and 3.7 WAR in four seasons that totals 15.9 WAR. Below is a calculation of what the figure would equate to in performance value for the Orioles. It begins in 2013, which is when the deal will be struck if there is one between Jones and Orioles. Using $5 million per 1 WAR in 2012 as a basis, I added 5% inflation for each subsequent season.
One would assume that Jones, if he is indeed able to produce the numbers I suggested for 2012, would be looking for a deal worth something in the $12 – $15 million per season range in a four year deal. So, we’re talking anywhere from $48 – $60 million total. Even the $60 million figure is worth looking at for the Orioles based on the returns that could be expected in the estimation above.
Now, Jones could be looking for that deal even if he only slightly improves this year. Here is a less optimistic view of a four year stretch.
As you can see the same contract values do not look as reasonable for the Orioles. While they would still receive a return on investment the wiggle room is much smaller. So, Duquette and owner Peter Angelos have to determine where they feel Jones will land over the next several seasons. Is he on the verge of a complete breakout or is he reaching his full potential now and will level off?
If the Orioles can convince Jones to change his approach at the plate and his fielding metrics can improve, I feel there is reason to be optimistic that he can produce at the level of a 4 WAR player for the next four to five seasons. Those types of numbers would place Jones among the top 10 center fielders in MLB and would warrant a deal topping out around 4 years/$60 million. All of this hinges on Jones’ performance in 2012. Duquette is wise to take the wait and see approach in order to determine if Jones continues to mature or if he has already hit his peak.
Is Jones ready for a breakout season or have we seen him at his best? Will the Orioles make a move to retain the young budding star or pass him up and go in a different direction? Let us know in the comments below.
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