New York Yankees sign David Aardsma Analysis
Former Seattle Mariners closer David Aardsma is trying to regain his footing after Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss the past MLB season. The New York Yankees have snapped the 30-year-old reliever up and have given him a one-year deal worth just $500,000. The deal includes a team option for the 2013 season, and all the incentives gained from this year will be added to his base salary next season. He underwent TJ in July last year, so he will still be on the shelf for around the first half of the 2012 season. However, this is a worthy risk given that Aardsma was worth 1.9 WAR in 2009 when he first joined the Mariners. This is the third veteran who has received a cheap, one-year deal from the Yankees, as the team is shoring up small pieces for another Championship push.
ZiPS projects 32 innings out of David Aardsma next season, as well as a 9.84 K/9 and a 4.50 BB/9. That is a reasonable projection, because he was better than that in his phenomenal 2009 campaign but was worse the next season in 2010 (0.2 WAR). He should have a SIERA of 3.60 and is projected by ZiPS to have an ERA of 3.66 and an FIP of 3.56.
Last season, pitchers who threw 31-34 innings and had an FIP between 3.40-3.60 were worth around 0.2 WAR to 0.3 WAR. Due to park and league adjustments, David Aardsma is a 0.3 WAR pitcher in 32 innings of work. This means that he is worth about $1.3 million and has the value of a league average reliever, while his baseline projection (0.2 WAR) has him at $900,000. Because it is difficult to project a player after TJ surgery, the latter projection should be used in this case. It is not a true baseline projection and is more realistic given the circumstances. Either way, it’s a good deal for the Yanks.
The numbers above show that this is a more than worthy risk for the Yankees, and it isn’t even a risk- the contract lasts for just one year and has incentives. The team option is meaningless if David Aardsma does nothing this season and looks washed-up, and Aardsma is a capable set-up man when healthy and has definite value for this team.
While David Aardsma has control issues and gives up his fair share of long balls, he has good stuff (94 mile per hour fastball when healthy) and generates strikeouts in bunches (career 10.5 SwStr%). The Yankees saved around $500,000 by making this deal and gave him half his value for this season. Next year, the contract should look even better for the Yankees- if he gets the option and proves himself in 2012.
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