2012 Player Projection: Dan Uggla

As of today, I am going to periodically do random 2012 projections for random players that pop into my head while I’m eating a bowl of cereal. The projections themselves are more scientific and based off of projections available on FanGraphs, since the people who formulate those projections are both smarter and have more time to do that kind of stuff than me. However, I will also take a look at the player’s 2011 numbers, and to a lesser extent, their career totals. First up, Dan Uggla of the Atlanta Braves.

Atlanta Braves second baseman Dan Uggla is easily the most unorthodox 2B- of players who are actually good- that I have seen in the past decade. He can’t run or field, but he makes up for that with power. Uggla doesn’t generate many line-drives and hits more than his fair share of fliers, so his batting average suffers accordingly. Again, he makes up for that by working the count and drawing walks, although he bucked that trend last season with a .311 OBP that was well under his career average of .343 (BB% under 10% for first time since 2007).

So, on to the projections that can be found on FanGraphs. Except, as always, I have the Simple WAR Calculator to put a more advanced twist on the numbers. Below are those projections on the soon-to-be 32-year-old, under the assumption that his defense costs the team nine runs and his baserunning will set the Braves back a run.

Dan Uggla 2012 Projections

Steamer: 3.2 WAR, 122 wRC+

Bill James: 3.3 WAR, 124 wRC+

RotoChamp: 3.0 WAR, 121 wRC+

Marcel: 2.3 WAR, 116 wRC+

47 Fans: 3.2 WAR, 122 wRC+

ZiPS: 2.5 WAR, 116 wRC+