Phillies Cole Hamels wants too much
It has been a month since the Philadelphia Phillies have talked about a contract extension with star left-hander Cole Hamels, and the recent five-year, $112.5 million deal given to Matt Cain by the San Francisco Giants has complicated things further for Ruben Amaro Jr. and the Phillies.
As Blaine already hit on earlier, the team is interested in shoring up their middle infield by taking a look at former Chicago Cubs 2B Mike Fontenot. That’s important for the short-term, but an extension to Cole Hamels is of extreme importance for the long-term. He may be their No. 3 starter right now with Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee at the top of the rotation, but there is a reason why everyone agrees that it’s not a legitimate argument against Hamels. He’s younger than those two and is just such a talented southpaw who needs to be locked up.
So, let’s say that the Phillies decide to give Cole Hamels five years. Let’s say that he’s a 4.5 WAR player right now, below is a rough projection of his talents.
Cole Hamels Rough Projection
2013: 5 WAR
2014: 4.5 WAR
2015: 4 WAR
2016: 3.5 WAR
2017: 3 WAR
That very rough projection has him as a 20 WAR player over those five seasons for an average of 4 WAR per season. He has two prime years during the contract, as well as one season at the start of his decline. Thus, Hamels can be expected to be worth, on average, 4 WAR during those five seasons for an overall value of $90 million overall ($18 million per year).
That’s a fair representation of his value, because Cole Hamels is older than Matt Cain and is a tad worse. He’s a great pitcher and an ace (remember the 20o8 postseason), but he isn’t a $100 million pitcher; those are nearly impossible to find.
I hope the Phillies end up getting something done with Hamels quickly, since he has a great mix of strikeouts, low walks, and solid GB rates. He’s definitely one of the best pitchers in baseball and somebody who just fits in with the Phillies. I’m sure he’d be open to an extension, but the Phillies also need to be careful. He isn’t Matt Cain, and the Phillies shouldn’t buy into anyone who tries to persuade them into thinking that he is.
The problem is that the Phillies tried to give Cole Hamels five years and $85 million a while back, but his camp rejected that deal. That contract was the same one given to Jered Weaver last year, which was as team-friendly as it gets for the Angels. However, Weaver is also younger and better than Hamels. Get the theme? Hamels’s side thinks that he deserves to get paid like those guys, but Weaver and Cain have more prime years and no decline years in their five year deals; they are also slightly better overall. While Hamels deserves slightly more than Weaver’s dollar amount, it’s simply because Weaver’s contract was such a great one for the Angels.
The Philadelphia Phillies know that they need to keep Cole Hamels locked up, but they need to find out if he’s worth overpaying for. It looks like Hamels wants $100 million (and why shouldn’t he), and that poses a big problem for the Phillies that will get bigger with each passing week that negotiations drag on. Neither side has been talking, and this is going to be one of the stories of the season.
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