Assessing Wandy Rodriguez Trade Value

Nick Cafardo’s latest column touches on the Houston Astros plans with Wandy Rodriguez and wrote the following.

"Wandy Rodriguez, LHP, Astros – Off to a good start, the veteran will be in demand by the trading deadline. The Astros are going to make the best deal possible for him, and that will be in late July when teams are desperate for a bona fide starter."

Wandy Rodriguez was in trade rumors last season, but nobody wanted to acquire him. Teams aren’t interested in packaging anything of substance for the left-hander, which is a shame since Rodriguez has value and is one of the more underrated pitchers in the game. He wasn’t traded last season, but that was a down year for him (1.5 WAR, 4.15 FIP with a 3.49 ERA). However, you would think that somebody would be willing to add the 33-year-old southpaw who was worth 4 WAR in 2009 and 3.6 WAR in 2010.

So far this season, Wandy has been worth 1.2 WAR in six starts (38.1 innings). He has a 1.64/2.33/3.54 pitching triple slash and has bumped up his ZiPS projection from a 3.82 ERA and a 3.69 FIP to a 3.39 ERA and a 3.42 FIP. Rodriguez has been a little lucky this season, but he has pitched well and should at least match his preseason projection of 3 WAR.

That’s the thing, even his moderate pre-season projection shows that he’s capable of throwing 180 quality innings a season with an ERA between 3.40-3.60. Although he does make quite a bit of money ($13 million in 2013), Rodriguez is worth it by being a 3 WAR starter. His great start to the season (1.64 ERA, low walk rate) furthers his value and re-enforces the idea that Rodriguez is a valuable pitcher. With his contract taking him to 2013 with a vesting option for the 2014 season ($13 million, $2.5 million buyout), he should be able to fetch some more value than a rental start would.

$13 million equates to about 2.9 WAR, so his contract is fair for his production. With Rodriguez on pace to breaking the 3 WAR total this season (paid $10 million this year), he plays a little better than his contract overall. 3 WAR is an appropriate projection for him going forward, because he is 33.

Waiting to trade him until July has little risk associated with it, since Rodriguez has never had a below 1.5 WAR season over the past few years and isn’t going to suddenly collapse. He’s also a durable pitcher, so it’s safe to assume that he’ll be healthy until a deadline. Contenders looking to fill a hole after an injury, contenders looking to add a pitcher, and teams looking to become contenders by acquiring players will pay up at the deadline, so it is definitely wiser to wait.

As for the value that can be fetched by Wandy Rodriguez, the Astros will likely have to eat up some of his contract. Last year, GMs believed that he was nearly untouchable due to his “high” salary. Seems ludicrous and a ploy to kill the value of a solid starter on a fair contract. The Astros should be able to nab a pair of solid prospects or one B+ level prospect out of the deal, but they might have to eat up some of his salary. When the deadline comes around, we’ll have a better idea of whether or not teams have changed their mind and are finally willing to give something of value for one of the better southpaws in the MLB.

Be sure to check out all of Call to the Pen’s transaction breakdowns for the 2011-12 offseason. You can follow Call to the Pen on Twitter at @FSCalltothePen or like us here on Facebook.

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