Josh Hamilton An Intriguing Puzzle

Josh Hamilton is the pre-eminent power hitter in the game right now. But how much is he going to be worth on the open market in free agency when his contract is up with the Texas Rangers?

No question the guy can belt them with the best. He is the top home run and RBI man in the American League one-quarter of the way through the season, but he is also a recovering drug and alcohol addict who has occasionally slipped, and periodically reminds us that every day is a constant battle to stay sober, stay on the wagon, and stay away from the bad substances he has ingested in the past.

The bar was set very high for the premium free agents last year, with Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder obtaining long-term contracts of more than $20 million per season of around a decade’s duration. It is difficult to see Hamilton commanding the same bucks for a long deal simply because his case is different. There isn’t a team in baseball that wouldn’t love to have the guy. But how many teams can take a risk that he will stay healthy and be able to play without relapsing, for five, seven or eight years? Tough call.

For all of the tortures of the mind and body Hamilton has endured–and explained to sportswriters and in a book–he has produced on the field in a big way. How can you not love watching Hamilton play? He is one of the few players in the sport at the moment who can put fannies in the seats based on his reputation. When Josh and the Rangers come to town (and he is not the Lone Ranger given that Texas has captured the last two American League pennants) they are a welcome attraction.

Hamilton’s recent four-home-run fireworks display in equaling the all-time Major League record for homers in a game only served as a reminder of the type of explosive power he carries in his bat and how he is subject to unleashing it on an unsuspecting pitcher at any time. Going into Friday’s action Hamilton had an AL-leading 18 homers and an AL-leading 49 RBIs and was batting .379. If the All-Star game was contested today that would make him the All-Star of All-Stars for the classic.

The 6-foot-4, 240-pound slugger is one of the best pure players in baseball. He is also 31, so as much money as he might be in line for on a yearly basis it seems doubtful he is going to be able to lasso one of those 10-year contracts that floated around last off-season. Hamilton has just six seasons on his resume because he missed so much time from the problems stemming from his addictions.

As well as they have played over the last few seasons–and the Rangers look like the best team in the American League again–they would be foolish to let Hamilton go to another team, especially an American League competitor which could get extra mileage out of him in the long run as a designated hitter.

Likewise, Hamilton is loved in Texas, knows he is a big part of the team’s success, and in theory should be living and playing in his comfort zone, something that one would think is particularly valuable for a person with his history. The Rangers spent lavishly on Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish, so it will be hard for them to hold out on Hamilton.

I would think Hamilton would want to stay with the Rangers and that the Rangers would want him to stay with them. The big money shouldn’t be a problem, but the debate will likely be over how long a deal should go. If the team and the player can meet at four years I believe they will get it done.