Will Texas Rangers Nelson Cruz rebound?

Nelson Cruz had a game to remember in a 14-3 victory for the Texas Rangers over the Toronto Blue Jays, as Cruz drove in eight runs while going 4-5 with two runs. He hit a 428 foot Grand Slam and also had a three-RBI double in the first inning as the Rangers chased Brandon Morrow out of the game after just 0.2 innings.

However, Nelson Cruz is coming off of a 1.6 WAR season in 2011, and it was a disappointing campaign for the right fielder who had his worst season since 2007. Back then, Cruz was an unknown player who was below replacement level. That changed in 2008, when he was worth 1.8 WAR in just 133 plate appearances and tore it up as a hitter.

The Rangers gave him a chance to show his stuff in 2009, and Cruz broke out with a 3.3 WAR season and a solid 116 wRC+. He had a UZR of 8.5 and managed to do that with a .278 BABIP.

A year later, Nelson Cruz established himself as one of the best hitters in the game with a 5.1 WAR season that saw him adding ten runs with his defense, according to UZR. DRS, however, always saw him as merely above-average and a few runs above zero. In any case, Cruz had a fantastic 151 wRC+ and got on base at a .374 clip, but quite a bit of that was fueled by a .348 BABIP.

In 2011, his BABIP dropped to .288 as did his defense (-6.1 UZR) and base-running. He stole 20 and 17 bases in 2009 and 2010, but that total dropped to just nine in 2011. It might have something to do with injuries, as Cruz has been suffering from quad and hamstring injuries and missed 36 games in 2010 with hamstring injuries. In 2011, he missed 31 games due to quad/hamstring injuries.

That could also be the cause for a drop in UZR, because his usually great range fell into the subpar zone. His DRS value dropped by nine runs as well, so a drop in range could be the case. His UZR is back in the positives early on this year, but Cruz’s range is around “zero”, which means that the decline in defensive value is legit due to those hamstring injuries. He is stealing less often and has much worse range because his legs aren’t the same as they were due to those injuries.

The drop in defensive value is important, because that loss of 14.6 runs from his 2009 and 2011 UZR totals pretty much halved his WAR total. In both seasons, he had a 116 wRC+, but the difference in defensive value contributed to an overall drop in WAR that was quite significant.

As far as hitting goes, Cruz walked just 6.4% of the time, after walking 8.5% of the time the previous season and 9.5% in 2009. His power (29 homers, .246 ISO) was about the same, but his BABIP fell to .288 and contributed to a meager .312 OBP (along with his low walk rate).

There’s a reason for all this, because the free-swinging right fielder was even more free-swinging than usual. The results, as one would expect, weren’t pretty. He chased a pitch out of the zone 32.9% of the time and, when he swung, he would manage to make contact on a pitch out of the zone 63% of the time. This helped to contribute to the lower walk rate, the drastically lower line drive rate, and a .288 BABIP that was about 20 points below his career average.

Pitchers took note and once again started throwing even less first-pitch strikes, because Nelson Cruz was swinging at pretty much anything and making weak contact. He had a career-high 41.4 GB%, and there are similarities in his 2009 and 2011 seasons.

He had low line-drive rates in both years, and his batted ball statistics and BABIPs were similar. It’s just that he hit for more power in 2009 and walked more to overcome that dip in BABIP. He was more patient that year and had a higher wOBA by 16 points (same wRC+ due to different leagues).

Cruz’s approach changed in2010 to the free-swinging way, and it worked due to his high BABIP. He ended up having an 11.9 SwStr%, which is below his career average of 13.4%. That helped him achieve a low 18.2 strikeout percentage (for him, at least).

The more the numbers are examined, the more it seems like Nelson Cruz will never approach his 2010 season, and that it may have been an anomaly due to a  high amount of luck. He’s still a quality hitter, but Cruz is 31 and has lost his wheels in the outfield and on the bases. He’s still a good power hitter, but his free-swinging ways make him a .320-.330 OBP guy at this point.

Through 187 plate appearances and 44 games this season, Cruz has had a disappointing 87 wRC+ which has bumped down his ZiPS offensive projection from .351 to .336 wOBA. That is a pretty significant jump, but UZR likes his defense again and bumped up his ZiPS WAR projection from 1.9 WAR to 2.3 WAR, even with the depressed wOBA projection.

Before the season, most tabbed Cruz as having somewhere between a 3.5-4 WAR season. The batted ball statistics have climbed back to better levels, but he has a low 87 wRC+ even with a .339 BABIP.

He may be swinging and chasing less, but his BB% has stayed constant to last seasons’s poor 6.4% mark. It is too early to tell, but the current stats are troubling. He has whiffed 15% of the time and is making much less contact than usual.

His most recent performance against the Blue Jays could be a catalyst for better times ahead, but I’m skeptical. I think his offensive value does bounce back to around a 116 wRC+, but it seems like his 2011 offensive performance was the right estimation of his value.

Nelson Cruz is still a very good power hitter, but his OBP will cause him to have a wRC+ somewhere around 120. The better plate approach will pay off as the season goes on, even if the 25.7 K% is troubling. He will still have subpar defensive value, but expect a 2.5 WAR season from him, with 3.5 WAR being his upside and another 1.5 WAR-ish season being his basement. Cruz is still a solid player, but he will never be worth 5 WAR again and probably won’t reach the 4 WAR total.

The change in his approach at the plate is common with older players who have been significantly affected by recent leg injuries. His power will keep him going, and I would honestly rather see him swing a little more than he has so far this season. I hope his recent game is a sign of things to come, but I can’t see Cruz being worth more than 3 WAR this season. This isn’t going to be a rebound year for him, and last season was the beginning of a decline that will be slow. He will still have value due to his ability to hit for power (around a .225 ISO with 20-25 homers), but Cruz’s time as an elite outfielder was brief.

In essence, this will be rebound year for him based on his low 1.6 WAR total last season, but it isn’t a rebound year when looking at his 2009 and 2010 WAR totals. He is rebounding from last season, but the sad thing is that Cruz’s best days are definitely behind him (by the way, this is one of those times when I hope I’m way off).

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