Why Jeremy Guthrie had his best season in three years

Jeremy Guthrie allowed just one run and three hits in five innings of work against the Baltimore Orioles in Game Three of the ALDS. The right-handed pitcher pitched wonderfully against his old-team in arguably the biggest start of his eleven-year career. Never before had Guthrie made a postseason appearance, so I would go as far to say he did, indeed, make the “biggest” start at the ripe age of thirty-five.

With that said, the decision to start him altogether was shrouded in controversy, and it is not hard to see why. Guthrie is the Royals fifth best starter (or worst) behind James Shields, Yordano Ventura, Jason Vargas, and the probably-healthy Danny Duffy. If you do not trust or agree with that statement, here is evidence via their 2014 numbers.

James Shields (227 IP): 3.21 ERA, 3.59 FIP, and 3.7 fWAR

Yordano Ventura (183 IP): 3.20 ERA, 3.60 FIP, and 2.8 fWAR

Jason Vargas (187 IP): 3.71 ERA, 3.84 FIP, and 2.6 fWAR

Danny Duffy (149 and 1/3 IP): 2.53 ERA, 3.83 FIP, and 2.2 fWAR

Jeremey Guthrie (202 and 2/3 IP): 4.13 ERA, 4.32 FIP, and 1.5 fWAR

American League Starter’s 2014 Average: 3.92 ERA and 3.85 FIP 

As you should be able to clearly see, Guthrie is the worst of the bunch any way you slice it. And, as you should also be able to see, Guthrie is a below-average American League starter any way you slice it.

But, like I previously mentioned, Duffy has run into some health issues lately, and while he insists he is able to go, we cannot be entirely sure. If, however, there really is something, maybe something that Duffy himself is neglecting to acknowledge, then I have no problem with Yost starting Guthrie in last night’s contest.

Jeremy’s top-notch command has been on display this season and is the sole reason why he has any value at all. 47.6% of his pitches were within the strike zone in ’14, which is 2.8% better than the MLB average of a 44.8 zone percentage. Further, his 2.18 BB/9 this season was an astonishing .51 points less than the MLB 2.69 average. All said, Guthrie can be counted on to throw strikes and not allow multiple free passes.

His command alone forged him into a valuable commodity even with his abysmal strikeout total. This, however, has been the narrative Guthrie has followed his entire career: pristine control but poor put-away stuff that at times resulted in damage. Oddly enough, even as Guthrie has been creeping up in age, he put together his best season in the past three years, in 2014, following basically the same formula that has yielded him a degree of success in the past.

So what, one might ask, has made this season his best since 2011? Before this article even continues I need to say this: it is not team chemistry!

Okay. Anyway, let’s take a look at Guthrie’s “basic” stats from 2012-2014 just to verify my claim.

2012 (181 and 2/3 IP): 4.76 ERA, 5.10 FIP, and 1.1 fWAR

2013 (211 and 2/3 IP): 4.04 ERA, 4.79 FIP, and 1.0 fWAR

2014 (202 and 2/3 IP): 4.13 ERA, 4.32 FIP, and 1.5 fWAR

My initial assumption was that the Royals’ sensational defense, which ranks first in baseball in UZR (61.1), was the reason why Guthrie’s numbers have improved. Though there may be some truth behind that, that does not take into account why his Fielding Independent Pitching, which strips what the pitcher cannot control (i.e. luck; defense behind him) from his numbers, was the best it has ever been in his career.

Well, the obvious answer is that his BB/9 is the lowest it has been since 2010, his K/9 is the highest it has been since 2011, and his HR/9 is the lowest it has ever been in a full season. But the “obvious” does not explain why this is, and the title of this article is “Why Jeremy Guthrie has had his best season in three years.” I mean, seriously, how lame would it be if I just ended the article with such a vague explanation? I may be lame but I am not that lame! So, the following paragraph gives you the long-anticipated reason for Guthrie’s success.

According to Fangraphs Pitch f/x data, Guthrie has thrown the changeup 819 times this season; putting that in perspective, he’s thrown the off-speed pitch more than he did in the 2011 and 2012 seasons combined. Opposing hitters have not had much success at all off Guthrie’s changeup this year, compiling a pedestrian .654 OPS off it. That changeup provided him with the lowest opposing OPS of any of his pitches. The frequency for which he has gone to the changeup has increased marginally from 2012 (262) to 2013 (686) to 2014 (819).

Is it a mere coincidence Guthrie has been getting better every single year with increased changeup usage? I surmise not, as hitters have not been able to accomplish much of anything when he throws it. And if Guthrie continues to throw it with aplomb, well, then maybe starting him in the postseason was not such a bad idea after all.