Should the Blue Jays hang on to Dioner Navarro?
Earlier in week the Toronto Blue Jays signed catcher Russell Martin to a five year contract worth $82 million. Martin is probably not the offensive stud — the one who compiled a .402 on-base percentage — that we saw last season because in reality he is something closer to a league-average hitter.
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When I say “in reality” I am really saying his .336 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) in ’14 will likely deviate towards his career .289 BABIP; that, on top of never having a wRC+ two percent above league average (102 wRC+) since 2008 leads me to believe he will be a decent hitter going forward. With that said, his defensive skills, including
his exceptional pitch-framing abilities
, forges him into one of the best catchers and players in baseball.
Obviously, the acquisition of a stupendous player is beneficial for the Blue Jays and their future outlook. It is not, however, beneficial to Dioner Navarro, Toronto’s catcher last year. After signing Navarro to a two-year, $8 million contract last offseason, the switch-hitter delivered with a 98 wRC+ and 2.0 fWAR in 520 plate appearances. By the way, it is estimated one win or one WAR is worth $6-7 million. If we use that math, the backstop was worth approximately (I am using $6.5 million per win for the purpose of this exercise) $13 million in ’14. He made $3 million in 2014 when he was worth — according to this imperfect measure at least — $13 million; in essence, he received $10 million less than he was actually worth. fWAR, though, does exclude pitch framing in its calculation.
Navarro, per StatCorner, was the third-worst framer among starting catchers behind only Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Wellington Castillo last season. One must keep this in mind when looking at him. This means Navarro was not worth quite $13 million in 2014. But even despite his pitch framing shortcomings I am confident asserting that he was still a bargain for the Jays last year.
The question with Martin’s emergence, though, is what his future with the Blue Jays will look like. There are reports suggesting Navarro is drawing significant interest on the trade market and there are those claiming that he, himself, has a desire to be moved. The former and latter reports mean it is not only likely that the 30-year-old will be dealt, it is sensible. That is, depending on the offers Toronto receives for him. And if the offers do not yield the Blue Jays a reasonable return then I do not think it would be totally crazy for them to hold on to him and give him the exclusive role as their designated hitter against southpaws as well as his duties backing up the not-so-durable Martin.
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Throughout his eleven-year career, the switch-hitter has collected a solid .769 OPS and 107 wRC+ against lefties, compared to a meager .660 OPS and 78 wRC+ against right-handers.
The Jays acquired prospect bust — well, to this point — Justin Smoak late this fall, and they, based on how the current roster is configured, are going to use him at first and maybe designated hitter. Edwin Encarnacion is not a great fielder (neither is Smoak), and I think — I could be wrong — that the Jays would prefer having Encarnacion at DH (and Smoak at first) when Smoak is in the lineup because he is probably the better fielder of the two. Smoak, however, should really only be in the lineup against right-handed pitchers, as the 27-year-old owns a career 99 wRC+ versus righties and a 82 wRC+ against lefties.
For those confused where I am going with this here is my plan laid out below:
Against RHP
DH Edwin Encarnacion
1B Justin Smoak
Against LHP
DH Dioner Navarro
1B Edwin Encarnacion
Between that and assuming backup catching duties, Navarro has a chance to accrue some real value for the Blue Jays if they are to keep him next season. I am not necessarily insinuating they should keep Navarro; all I am saying is if they chose to do so there is a feasible way for him to be productive. Ultimately, however, it comes down to what offers the Jays receive, but that, my friends, is entirely out of Alex Anthopoulos’ hands.