Examining Justin Upton’s trade market

Justin Upton has been one of the more common names tossed around on the trade market this offseason, but there are no indications that the Atlanta Braves are close to making a deal. Numerous teams have been linked to the outfielder over the past few weeks, but to date it appears that talks have remained stagnant due to a combination of the Braves’ asking price and there being alternative options available on the open market.

The closer we get to Spring Training, the more those options will continue to come off the board and the more interest in Upton should pick up.

Upton was the first overall selection in the 2005 Draft and made his debut in August 2007 at age 19. Eight years later he is a .274/.354/.476 hitter who has averaged 33 doubles, 26 home runs, and 86 RBI a year throughout his career. He can effectively handle either outfield corner, but Upton will be a free agent at year’s end. He’s slated to earn $14.5 million in 2015 – a reasonable cost for a one year deal, but team’s seem somewhat hesitant to pay a steep price to land him based on his proximity to the free agent market. It’s unknown whether he might be open to discussing an extension with whichever team may acquire him.

In recent days much of the speculation has centered on the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants being two of the more likely suitors. The Padres just made a splash, adding Matt Kemp to their league-worst offense, but still reportedly have interest in bringing Upton in as well. The Giants have seemingly shifted their focus towards adding offense, rather than making a push for a big name starting pitcher.

The Seattle Mariners, Kansas City Royals, Texas Rangers, and Baltimore Orioles have also come up in discussions to varying degrees.

Atlanta is believed to be prioritizing young pitching and second base in return for Upton. There’s belief that Jose Peraza will be able to fill the team’s need at second long term, but he likely won’t be MLB-ready until midsummer at the earliest. The Braves are looking more for a stopgap, rather than a permanent option at the position. Taking this all into consideration, Sam Dykstra at MiLB.com took a stab at projecting some potential packages that might make for a suitable trade between Atlanta and these teams.

Most of Dykstra’s proposals are centered around pitching prospects, which seems likely given the Braves’ position. Some of his proposals are intriguing, though there might need to be a tweak here or there regarding the players involved.

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There are definite fits for Upton with many of the teams that have shown interest. Each could use a boost on offense and has the room to upgrade in one of the outfield corners. Upton also brings the flexibility to slide into just about any lineup. He hits right-handed, but has hit from every potential spot in the lineup in his career. That flexibility is often undervalued.

Atlanta has a number of questions that they still need to address this offseason. The team could look to add at least one starting option, depth for the bullpen, another outfielder who could come off the bench, and potentially a second catcher. The club started the offseason being aggressive about making moves – completing deals to trade Tommy La Stella and Jason Heyward before Thanksgiving – but has cooled their discussion of late. Multiple players could still be on the move between now and the upcoming trade deadline, but Upton appears to be the most likely candidate to bring back a useful return.