History says Craig Biggio is Hall of Fame bound

Most baseball fans have accepted three guarantees for the Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2015. Pitchers Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and John Smoltz are the three players we expect to see in Cooperstown next summer. One player who may join them is Craig Biggio. A member of the 3,000 Hit Club, Biggio has one of the few milestones on the back of his baseball card that at one time was a lock to make the Hall of Fame. Yet after two elections, the ballots have not been so kind.

The main argument against Biggio tends to involve some name-calling. Biggio is referred to by detractors as a “compiler.” By this, the Biggio-haters mean his numbers are more about playing for a long time rather than a showcase of his skill.

Those against a Hall of Fame that includes Biggio have a point. He only reached 200 hits in a season once and failed to ever have one of those standout moments or surplus of awards. Best known for getting hit by a lot of pitches, Biggio lacks plenty when compared to others already in the Hall of Fame.

If the history of the Hall of Fame Ballot has anything to say about Biggio’s odds in 2015, Houston Astros fans need to make hotel reservations immediately. Biggio went up from 68.2% of the vote in 2013 to 74.8% in 2014 (a mere two votes shy). In two consecutive years, Biggio was the top vote earner without reaching the required 75% for induction.

Typically, the guy who finishes with the highest percentage under 75% one year will receive enough the following or soon after. The only player other than Biggio who has failed to do so since 2000 is Jack Morris.

Highest Hall of Fame Vote Under 75% Since 2000

• 2014: Craig Biggo 74.8%
• 2013: Craig Biggio 68.2%
• 2012: Jack Morris 66.7%
• 2011: Barry Larkin 62.1% (Elected in 2012)
• 2010: Bert Blyleven 74.2% (Elected in 2011)
• 2009: Andre Dawson 67.0% (Elected in 2010)
• 2008: Jim Rice 72.2% (Elected in 2009)
• 2007: Rich Gossage 71.2% (Elected in 2008)
• 2006: Jim Rice 64.8% (Elected in 2009)
• 2005: Bruce Sutter 66.7% (Elected in 2006)
• 2004: Ryne Sandberg 61.1% (Elected in 2005)
• 2003: Bruce Sutter 53.6% (Elected in 2006)
• 2002: Gary Carter 72.7% (Elected in 2003)
• 2001: Gary Carter 64.9% (Elected in 2003)
• 2000: Jim Rice 51.5% (Elected in 2009)

The last man to receive the highest percentage under 75% and never receive enough votes from the writers was Orlando Cepeda in in 1994. That election, Cepeda received 73.5% of the vote. Of course, he would later receive enough votes from the Veteran’s Committee and enter Cooperstown in 1999.

Before Cepeda, the last man to come up short and never receive enough votes was Gil Hodges in 1976. Despite several attempts over the years to get Hodges into Cooperstown, he remains absent from the hallowed halls.

Along with the last two elections in 2013 and 2014, the 1976 vote is the third where a player with the most votes under 75% failed to reach the Hall of Fame. Thanks to the sometimes predictability of the voters, this rarity is good news for Biggio.