A Future Preview of the Phillies’ Starting Rotation
By Tim Boyle
Jun 16, 2013; Omaha, NE, USA; NCAA umpire Danny Collins (33) hands the ball to LSU Tigers pitcher Aaron Nola (10) during the game against the UCLA Bruins in the College World Series at TD Ameritrade Park. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports
Although they hate to admit it, the Philadelphia Phillies are in rebuild mode. Trading away Jimmy Rollins as well as shopping everyone else from Cole Hamels to Jonathan Papelbon this offseason has made it clear this team is headed in a new direction. The club knows they must take a couple steps backwards before making a leap forward. The Phillies’ starting rotation of the future may be the best way to turn things around.
The Rollins trade got them pitching prospects Zach Eflin and Tom Windle from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Sending Marlon Byrd to the Cincinnati Reds brought them another promising pitcher in Ben Lively.
Together with Aaron Nola, their seventh overall pick in 2014, the Phillies have a better idea of what their starting rotation of the future may look like.
There is a chance all four of these highly-praised pitchers start the 2015 season with the Double-A Reading Fightin Phils. Eflin and Nola are two first round picks, while Windle was taken in the second round and Lively in the third. Draft position is never a guarantee for future success, however all four of these men have pitched very well in their professional careers thus far and could eventually pitch at the big league level together.
Here’s how their professional careers look so far:
- Zach Eflin: 17-14, 3.41 ERA, 1.26 WHIP (3 Seasons – Rookie ball, Low-A, High-A)
- Tom Windle: 17-9, 3.82 ERA 1.37 WHIP (2 Seasons – Low-A, High-A)
- Ben Lively: 13-11, 2.58 ERA, 1.06 WHIP (2 Seasons – Rookie, Low-A in ’13 – High-A, Double-A in ’14)
- Aaron Nola: 4-3, 2.93 ERA, 1.06 WHIP (1 Season – High-A, Double-A)
From the 2014 MLB Draft, the biggest compliment for Nola was his readiness for the big league level. His minor league career began in 2014 at Single-A Clearwater before getting called up to Double-A Reading. He turns 22-years old in June and at the rate he’s progressing through the Phillies’ farm system, he could come close to celebrating his 22nd birthday in the show with Philadelphia.
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Second to Nola in readiness for a spot in the Phillies’ rotation is Lively. His 13 starts at the Double-A level in 2014 make him the most experienced. Something to like about Lively most is the amount of strikeouts he has recorded thus far. He’s averaged 10.6 K/9 in the minors, including 9.5 at Double-A. In fact, the 171 SOs he had in 2014 was tied for second in the minor leagues. He will be 23-years old at the beginning of the 2015 season and has a chance to challenge Nola to become the first of the four prospects to get his own towel in the Phillies’ locker room.
For Eflin, he still has some growing to do. He’s the youngest of the four — and on a side note — actually was born on the same day Kurt Cobain passed. If you remember 90s music fondly, you probably feel much older than Eflin currently does. In spite of having the most seasons at the professional level, Eflin may be the furthest from the big leagues. Patience will be important in his case, as he does not turn 21 until April.
Of the four, Windle is the one most easily forgotten. Nola has the benefit of being drafted by the Phillies. Lively was the one they got for Byrd with all of the strikeouts up his sleeve. Eflin comes with the first round pick label attached to his name. Windle is still someone on the rise and worth paying attention to. The most important thing to watch from him is if he can cut down on his hits allowed. His H/9 last year with the High-A Rancho Cucamonga Quakes was 9.5. Considering he allowed 16 un-earned runs in 2014 pitching in 139.1 innings, defense may have let him down a time or two.
The Phillies are notorious for keeping players in the minors for extended periods, though. Specifically with reference to Ryan Howard, who didn’t become the team’s everyday first baseman until he was 26-years old. In spite of great numbers at the minor league level and the small sample he had with the big league team, the Phils were still cautious with him.
Time will tell how many, if any, of these pitchers become bankable starters in the Phillies’ starting rotation. Presently rather thin after Hamels and Lee, the Phillies at least have something positive to look forward to in the future — even if it is a distant one.