Too early to declare “down year” for Pittsburgh Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen
By Tim Haberin
If the season were to end today, Andrew McCutchen would likely be shocked to see a .229 batting average on the back of his baseball card. The first month-plus has been a surprisingly tough grind for the former MVP, who has also managed just three home runs, 17 RBI and a single stolen base, totals all lagging behind his usual high standards. Naturally, many in the baseball world have taken a stab at figuring out what exactly has been impeding the four-time All-Star.
McCutchen spent much of Spring Training tending to a left knee injury, leading some to wonder if it is still bothering him more than he will admit. The Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder has gone on the defensive to downplay those theories. He told ESPN.com yesterday that the ailing knee was “not a factor at all” in his slow start. As for those spreading that narrative: “They’re overanalyzing, is what it is.”
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This situation is merely the latest case of overreaction toward a slow start by a player we have become so accustomed to seeing dominate. McCutchen’s numbers the past three seasons are top-tier stuff, to say the least. He hit for a .320/.405/.534 slash line over that span while averaging 26 homers and 88 RBI. That production was good enough to land him in the top 3 in NL MVP voting each year, including winning the award itself in 2013. Still relatively young at 28 years old, most assumed Cutch would simply cruise his way to another season as one of MLB’s top stars.
When that batting average remained below the Mendoza line entering the month of May, more and more voices began tossing around a label no great player wants attached to their season: a “down year.” Disappointing years happen to the best of them, even in their primes, but fans should write off the 2015 version of McCutchen at their own peril. His performance has actually been improving gradually since the opening days of the campaign. After batting .194 in April, Cutch has been hitting a far more seemly .283 thus far in May. In his last six games he has gone 9-for-22 (.409) with four doubles, a homer and four RBI.
Several advanced statistics (courtesy of Fangraphs) also suggest Cutch could be in for a rebound. His BABIP in 2015 is .247, over 100 points lower than each of the last three years. Even if it doesn’t match the .355 mark of a year ago, McCutchen should experience some better fortune as the season progresses. His current HR/FB ratio (7.5%) is also well below usual. If that number comes more in line with McCutchen’s previous performance, he should pick up the home run pace a bit and hit his usual 20-25.
McCutchen’s early struggles have not had much to do with any radical change to his approach at the plate. His 15.3% strikeout rate is about the same as his MVP season and even lower than last year. He could stand to draw some more walks, however. His 9.5% walk rate is down a bit from recent seasons. Fortunately for the Bucs leader, he still has plenty of time to make adjustments.
It’s tough to decipher any situation where an injury is involved. Only Andrew McCutchen himself and his physicians know the true severity of his knee issue and how much it is hampering him. But if he says it is not slowing him down, he probably deserves the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. Those of a more pessimistic inclination might argue that McCutchen just doesn’t seem to be hitting the ball as hard this season. Fangraphs shows a 6.5% decrease in balls classified as hard-hit so far in 2015. Could that lack of pop be health-related? Certainly, as could his reticence on the base paths (one steal in two attempts this year). But it would only be speculation at this point.
For now, McCutchen has more than earned the right for a little patience from outsiders. If McCutchen was on the other side of 30, one might buy this as a legitimate decline. A couple well-timed hot streaks could give his season an entirely different outlook. Reactionary terms like “down year” and “lost season” should wait until closer to the All-Star break.
Meanwhile, the 17-16 Pirates (6.5 back in the NL Central) will hope that a resurgence from their best player coincides with their own rise in the standings.