Old habits hurting Phil Hughes in 2015
By Tim Haberin
Despite the Minnesota Twins‘ surprising 34-28 record, one of their key contributors from last season is having a much more difficult go of it in 2015. Phil Hughes emerged as the leader of the Twins pitching staff a year ago after signing a three-year pact with the club as a free agent. He won a team-high 16 games and put up a 3.52 ERA, his lowest of any year spent as a starter during his career. His 11.63 K/BB ratio was also the best in a single season in MLB history. Naturally, Hughes was expected to once again anchor the rotation for a team most presumed to be in a transitional phase.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
However, while the Twins continue to defy preseason notions as a unit, Hughes has found himself struggling to reproduce the success that made him such a prominent comeback story last year. Through 13 starts, he owns a 4-6 record and an unseemly 4.79 ERA. Hughes has provided his team with innings, averaging over six frames per outing, but they have rarely been quality ones.
Hughes’ frequent problem when with the Yankees was his knack for giving up the long ball. Many thought moving to pitcher-friendly Target Field would help him in that regard, and they were correct – in a sense. His HR/9 rate was cut by more than half, dropping from 1.5 in 2013 to 0.7 last season. However, Hughes was significantly better at limiting homers on the road than at home. He gave up 11 home runs in Minnesota and only five elsewhere. In any case, keeping the ball in the park was a major ingredient of Hughes’ success last year.
Unfortunately, the home run issue has reared its ugly head again in 2015. Hughes has surrendered an AL-most 15 homers so far, only one fewer than he gave up all of last season. Balls are flying off opponents’ bats far more than they were a year ago: his HR/FB ratio has more than doubled from 6.2% to 13.3%. While that number could naturally come down somewhat as the season progresses, it is fairly consistent with his time in New York, when he posted a rate over 10% multiple times. It’s not the greatest look for a pitcher with fly ball tendencies.
Another of the right-hander’s sources of frustration: he is simply giving up too many hits in general. Hughes has always allowed his fair share; even last year he surrendered more than a hit per inning. But this season has been troubling even by his standards. He has given up an MLB-most 102 hits in 82.2 innings pitched.
A diminished fastball could be part of the reason for his struggles. His average fastball velocity has dipped a bit from last year, and opponents are batting .331 against it in 2015 as opposed to .285 the season prior. Hughes has always been a fastball-heavy pitcher, so he may need to rethink his approach to get himself back on track. He had success with his cutter last year (.217 BAA) but hasn’t been featuring it as much this season.
Hughes has managed to maintain his stellar walk rate, though. After pacing both leagues with a 0.7 BB/9 last year, he currently leads the American League with a 1.0 BB/9. It has not done him much good, however, in light of all those hits he’s still allowing. Hughes has not been helping his case much via the strikeout either. He posted a 8.0 K/9 last season but has seen that rate slip to 5.6 K/9 so far this year.
Hughes has proved an enigma since his days as the jewel of the Yankees farm system, never quite developing into the front-end starter many thought he would become. Perhaps his most effective run in pinstripes came as a setup man on 2009’s championship squad. Last year’s solid campaign in Minnesota gave renewed hope to the idea that a change of scenery could help Hughes bounce back.
Though this is his ninth big league season, Hughes is turning just 29 next week. He still has time on his side to fix things. But right now the 2015 version of Hughes is sharing a lot more in common with the one that served up 59 long balls over his final two seasons in New York.
The Twins find themselves only 1.5 games back in an AL Central most thought would be dominated by the Royals and Tigers. Strong pitching from Kyle Gibson (3.24 ERA) and Mike Pelfrey (3.18 ERA) has helped steady the rotation amid Hughes’ struggles. However, if they wish to remain an active presence in the race, Phil Hughes regaining last season’s form would be a valuable boost.