San Diego Padres’ Tyson Ross, from ace to just another face?
With so much hype built up following offseason shuffling of the roster by the San Diego Padres and GM A.J. Preller, it’s not even July and the results so far have been underwhelming. Manager Bud Black was recently fired, but leadership problems were just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to organizational issues.
For all that is not going as planned, the struggles of Tyson Ross in the rotation should be analyzed. After the 2013 season, Ross transitioned from half a season in the bullpen, half in the rotation, to a full-time starter in 2014. Everything went beyond well. He led the pitching staff in WAR (2.9), tied for first on the team with 13 wins and finished with the eighth most strikeouts in the National League.
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At this time last season, Ross had a 3.27 ERA and was 6-6. He had issued 40 free passes, compared to the 42 he has given up already in 2015. Not a startling difference, but he does lead the Major Leagues in bases on balls. Ross’ 4.02 ERA also is not terrible, but these mild regressions illustrate how multiple minor setbacks across a roster really can fail to produce positive results.
The 28-year-old’s walk rate is up to 11.7 percent from 8.9 in 2014. Even though he has been wilder (leads NL with seven wild pitches) and his K% is currently about the same as his totals last year, Ross is getting hit harder and his defense is not bailing him out a often. His BAA is .276 compared to .230 last season.
An even bigger discrepancy comes in his BAbip, showing the Padres’ defense is not what it was last season. Ross’ BAA has spiked 46 points, but his BAbip has fluctuated even more. The .376 mark is by far the highest of Ross’ career, 78 points higher from last year. but his 3.06 FIP is currently lower right now than his final posting of 3.24 in 2014, again supporting the idea that the Padres might have sacrificed defensive efficiency for offensive productivity in 2015.
Other starting pitcher’s in the rotation who were present in 2014 like Andrew Cashner and Ian Kennedy show regression more so due to fielding independent pitching stats rather than a lack of defensive support. Cashner’s FIP is up from 3.09 to 4.28 while Kennedy’s has risen from 3.21 to 5.25.
The San Diego Padres had a team defensive efficiency ratio of .698 in 2014, placing them in the top half of MLB. This year, their DER sits at .677 and ranks 26th in the league. So while the Padres are producing more runs (4.23) an a per game basis in 2015 compared to last season (3.33), it’s looking as though Preller placed an emphasis on offense to the detriment of defense and aiding his pitching staff.
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Tyson Ross has been the fifth most valuable pitcher on the San Diego Padres’ staff in terms of WAR after James Shields, Brandon Maurer, Brandon Morrow and Joaquin Benoit in 2015. Two of those guys have played innings strictly out of the bullpen, further proof that a lack of defensive prowess has hurt the efficiencies of the Friars’ rotation in early innings. Morrow, meanwhile, has only started five games and thrown 33 innings this season but has been more effective than Ross.
Ross can still turn his season around, but the walks have to come down. It’s elevating his pitch counts drastically. Of his 14 starts, he has allowed only two or fewer walks five times and is yet to record an out in the eighth inning of a ball game. Ross was better in baseball’s second half last season, logging a shutout, a second complete game and a lower ERA after the Midsummer Classic.
The added home runs might help put more butts in the ball park seats, but pitching and defense is what will win more games for the Padres at Petco Park. San Diego is currently 16-19 at home, the third worst winning percentage (.457) amongst any National League squad.