Call to the pen
Fansided

Cincinnati Reds should try and trade Todd Frazier

By Eric Roseberry

facebooktwitterreddit

To say that this was a disappointing season for the Cincinnati Reds would be an understatement. After making the playoffs in 2012 and 2013 Cincinnati looked to rebound from a 2014 season plagued by injuries and underperforming players. At the beginning of the season there were legitimate reasons for cautious optimism.

Of course 2015 ended up being worse than 2014. Once again injuries plagued the team (Homer Bailey and Devin Mesoraco). Players that were expected to develop underperformed again (Billy Hamilton). Prior to the trade deadline, the Reds decided to unload a few of their most valuable trade chips. Cincinnati finished the season 64-98. It was their first last place finish in a division since 1983.

However, one bright spot on this year’s team was Todd Frazier. Not only did he have one of the best offensive seasons of any third basemen in baseball, but he also gave Reds’ fans their highlight of the season during the All-Star break. Watching Frazier when the home run derby at GABP was a thrill for the Reds’ faithful. Over the past few seasons Frazier has become one of the most beloved guys on the roster.

It doesn’t look like there are many reasons for optimism in Cincinnati for 2016. Because of that, and Frazier’s impending free agency, a difficult question needs to be asked. Should the Reds try and trade Todd Frazier? Initially fans will likely bristle at the idea. Why trade one of the few remaining stars on a team in desperate need of help?

Frazier is under contract for one more year, and he has one arbitration eligible year remaining after that. The Reds basically have two options at this point. Should they sign Frazier to a long term extension, or look to unload him this season?

For the reasons that follow I believe the best decision that Cincinnati could make is to trade Frazier.

So what are those reasons?

  1. The Reds need A LOT of help

If you’re reading this you’re probably familiar with “Wins Above Replacement” (WAR), but if not here is a quick refresher. Fangraphs gives this helpful definition, “WAR offers an estimate to answer the question, ‘If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a freely available minor leaguer or a AAAA player from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?'”

One way that you can assess the condition of a team is by adding up the WAR that their hitters and pitchers accumulated in a given year. So which National League teams accumulated the most WAR in 2015? Notice anything about this group of teams? That’s right, these were your NL playoff teams. Admittedly things aren’t as cut and dry in the AL, but this offers a helpful standard for assessing how close a given team is to contention.

  1. Cubs – 50.2
  2. Dodgers – 49.1
  3. Mets – 45.3
  4. Cardinals – 43.6
  5. Pirates – 43.5

We can learn even more if we look at how many players teams had contributing to this total. Below I have listed how many hitters and pitchers each of these teams had that contributed at least 1 WAR in 2015.

  1. Cubs – 7 pitchers and 7 hitters
  2. Dodgers – 6 pitchers and 11 hitters
  3. Mets – 5 pitchers and 9 hitters
  4. Cardinals – 7 pitchers and 8 hitters
  5. Pirates – 7 pitchers and 7 hitters

So what was Cincinnati’s WAR total last season?

27

How many pitchers and hitters did they have contribute at least 1 WAR?

3 pitchers (excluding Cueto and Leake) and 5 hitters

With that being said, the Reds had a couple of hitters who fared really well this year. Joey Votto finished with the second highest WAR total (7.4) for any player on a team mentioned above. Only Clayton Kershaw posted a higher number.

That also means Votto accounted for just over 25% of the Reds’ team WAR figure. Frazier contributed 4.4 WAR, but these two didn’t receive much help. Every playoff team had significantly more contributors to their teams success than the Reds had in 2015.

Simply put, the Reds aren’t just one or two pieces away. There’s not a starter left on the team who had a better than average season by ERA+. The Reds set a record by starting a rookie pitcher in 42 straight games this season! Homer Bailey coming back from injury should help some. Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Lorenzen, and Raisel Iglesias all had their moments as well. However, this isn’t a deep staff. One or two injuries would cripple this rotation again, and there’s no guarantee the rookies will continue to develop.

The Reds are in need of significant upgrades at a number of positions. They’re in desperate need of quality pitching depth. The Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake trades were good steps in that direction, but they aren’t going to entirely solve the problem.

You have three basic options to improve your baseball team: free agent signings, trades, or the draft. Most teams experience success with a mixture of all three. However, you shouldn’t expect the Reds to make a huge splash in free agency this off-season because…

More from Cincinnati Reds

2. The Reds have little financial flexibility

As R.J. Anderson noted in his article about the Reds in the Baseball Prospectus annual, “The Reds opened 2014 with a record $114 million Opening Day payroll.” This put Cincinnati 11th in team payroll to open the season. One of the things Reds’ fans looked forward to was the promise of a new TV deal that might allow them to spend more in the coming years. However, as Anderson noted, “the Reds have already spent money with a revenue boost in mind.”

This is not a team that’s going to break the bank for free agents over the next few years.

Joey Votto will make 20 million in 2016 with that amount increasing to 25 by 2018. Homer Bailey will make 18 million this year, and his contract will cross the 20 million mark by 2018. The Reds are on the hook for at least two more years of Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce. Both of those guys will earn 12 million+ over the next two seasons. This is a team that’s already spent a lot of money, and their isn’t much relief in sight over the next few years.

So if the Reds can’t add pieces through agency what can they do? They can trade away assets now for value down the road and they can draft well. Assessing their success in the draft will take some time, but cashing in now on guys like Frazier is something they can do immediately to start building toward the future.

Some still might ask, “Why should the Reds trade Frazier though?” If you’re trying to build a good team…shouldn’t you keep your best players? Well…

3. Todd Frazier will be 30 in 2016

In Steven Goldman’s article “Beyond the Back of the Baseball Card” he reminds readers that the average peak of a positional player is 27 years old. Clearly some players have had incredibly productive seasons past that point, but years of baseball data has told us that this is usually when a decline begins.

What does this mean for teams? Once a player approaches 30 he is extremely unlikely to produce as he did in previous seasons. However, it’s around this age that a lot of players are still getting big money contracts. The reality is teams are paying a premium for a player’s past production…not what he will do in the future.

A team looking to rebuild cannot afford to have a significant amount of money invested in players who have already or will begin to decline. If the Reds offered Frazier the type of extension that he will be looking for they would be making this mistake. I can’t imagine Frazier will accept any less than the deal Pablo Sandoval got last offseason (5 years/$95 million).

“A team looking to rebuild cannot afford to have a significant amount of money invested in players who have already or will begin to decline.”

There’s a good chance we’ve seen Frazier’s best offensive seasons, and I’m not sure his trade value will ever be higher. A contending team in 2016 would love to add a bat like his at his current salary. So why not get as much as you can for one of your most valuable assets while his demand is high?

There’s one other reason the Reds should pull the trigger on a deal like this.

4. The NL Central is baseball’s best division

The three best records in the National League all came from Cincinnati’s division this season. It looks like the Cubs have built a perennial powerhouse. St. Louis always finds a way to retool it’s roster. Pittsburgh has a strong core of players that should keep them in contention for the next few years.

Adding a few pieces to try and become a mediocre team isn’t going to get it done in the NL Central. Over the next decade you’re going to have to be a really good team to have a shot of winning the division. Again, the Reds aren’t just a few pieces away from really good. There is a lot of quality that needs to be added to get there.

With that in mind, the Reds shouldn’t expect to be back at the top of the division in the next 2-3 years. If you know that a rebuild is going to take several years, why invest significant money in someone who might have already peaked as a player? That money would be better spent giving you more potential options at numerous positions.

It simply doesn’t make any sense for the Reds to invest money in a star who will definitely be on the decline by the time they’re ready to compete again.

It’s hard watching a team go through a rebuild. Astros and Cubs fans will tell you that. I don’t expect Cincinnati to burn the team to the ground the way that those clubs did, but those teams didn’t get to where they are simply by paying for high priced veterans. They invested heavily in their farm systems and collected enough potential talent that some of it was bound to work out.

Things in Cincinnati are going to get worse before they can get better. However, things will get better a whole lot quicker if the Reds will use their current trade chips to help create a successful environment for the future. As much as I’ll miss Frazier as a Reds’ fan, it will set the club back even further to invest money in a player who won’t be contributing the next time they’re relevant.

Next: Could Cubs Swing A Deal For Sonny Gray?

More from Call to the Pen

Home/Cincinnati Reds