Miami Marlins: Reasons and concerns for locking up Dee Gordon long-term
According to ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, the Miami Marlins and Dee Gordon have agreed to a five-year, $50 million extension with a $14 million vesting option for a sixth year.
The vesting option kicks in if he reaches 600 plate appearances in the fifth year of the deal, or a combined 1,200 plate appearances in the fourth and fifth years.
Over the past two seasons Gordon has really come to fruition in the big leagues and made back-to-back All-Star games. Combined he’s hit .311 the past two seasons and stolen at least 58 bases. His on-base percentage drastically improved this year from .326 to .359.
Even if Gordon falls somewhere in between his 2014 and 2015 numbers this deal will be a bargain. He may be the most dangerous leadoff hitter in baseball speed-wise, because if he gets on you can bet he’s trying to steal second base.
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Gordon is also just 28 years old so you have to figure his legs will hold up through the end of this contract. His speed and ability to get on base are what make him valuable, but once those abilities give out he instantly loses his value.
I think the Marlins are locking him up for the perfect amount of time, at a price that is affordable to the franchise as they try and build a contender around Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez.
The concern of this contract is whether 2015 was a fluke. Gordon led the league in hits this past season with 205 as he compiled a .333 batting average and .359 on-base percentage. Before last season his career batting average was .261 and his highest on-base percentage in any year was .326, so the Marlins seem to be buying at his peak value.
If they have to deal with a player hitting around .270 and only getting on base 32 percent of the time, then I think the Marlins look back and regret this deal, because essentially they have an eight-hole hitter. If that’s the case, I also think it’s hard for the Marlins to compete over the next five years. For them to succeed Gordon has to get on base and setup RBI opportunities for Stanton and Christian Yelich.
For most teams, $50 million over five years isn’t going to break the bank, but as we’ve seen in the past it could really set back a franchise like the Marlins. It doesn’t look like a no-trade clause was added to the deal so if things don’t work out the next couple of years you can bet the Marlins will be looking to shop Gordon.
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My gut feeling is that this will be a steal (pun intended) for the Marlins as I believe Gordon is just now coming into his own. He’s learned how to use his speed to get on base, and once he’s on it won’t be long before he’s diving into second and then coming around to score.