MLB Preview: National League going through transitional period
Excluding World Series titles from the San Francisco Giants or St. Louis Cardinals since 2000, National League squads have won it all three times; the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2001, followed by the Florida Marlins in 2003 and lastly, the Philadelphia Phillies in 2008.
While clubs like the New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals and Giants figuring to be strong in 2016, there are a number of teams in the National League undergoing a rebuild of sorts. Nearly every National League division features a team that is seemingly pushing restart.
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In the NL East, the Phillies again find themselves in a similar situation to years past. No big moves were made in free agency. Cole Hamels is gone, Ryan Howard‘s presence at the plate continues to dwindle and the club even traded last year’s closer, the young and relatively inexpensive Ken Giles, away for a boatload of prospects to the Houston Astros on December 12. Philadelphia has not had a winning season since 2011. Entering the year with Jeremy Hellickson as the closest thing to an ace in the rotation, the Phillies should struggle greatly in a division amongst the defending National League champs and the Nats. As a lone bright spot, Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera look to be the future of the organization.
Moving southward in the NL East, we land in Georgia. While farther south in Florida the Marlins are becoming a popular sleeper pick, the Atlanta Braves are not. Shelby Miller is gone. He had a solid 2015 with a 3.02 ERA and a 3.45 FIP, yet managed only a 6-17 record due to a huge lack of offense surrounding him. The only bats worth owning on the Braves in fantasy baseball leagues last year were Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis and maybe Cameron Maybin. Freeman led the club with a meager 18 home runs and 66 RBI, while Markakis provided nearly no pop with only three long shots. Maybin is back in Detroit while Gold Glover Andrelton Simmons is no longer patrolling shortstop for the Braves.
To the National League Central, where the Brewers and Reds combined for 132 wins in 2015. About the only recognizable position player on Milwaukee’s roster for a passive MLB fan would have to be Ryan Braun. Aaron Hill and Jonathan Lucroy to a lesser extent, but Adam Lind is gone and being replaced with a career .217 hitter in Chris Carter at first. As for pitching, Wily Peralta figures to break camp as the No. 1 guy and Francisco Rodriguez‘s 82 saves from 2014-15 are no longer around.
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Heading down the I-65 to Cincinnati, the Reds said goodbye to All-Star third baseman Todd Frazier and are replacing him with a guy named Eugenio Suarez. He’s a 24-year-old that shows some promise, but a career .276 hitter in seven minor league seasons won’t translate to what the Reds are losing in Frazier. He finished second on the team in WAR each of the last two seasons. In the outfield, Jay Bruce bounced back mildly after a horrendous 2014 season. But he’s not hitting for contact or getting on-base particularly well since 2012, with a .239/.307 split. Homer Bailey is coming off UCL surgery and Johnny Cueto is now in the Bay Area. Pitchers Anthony DeSclafani and Raisel Iglesias could be pleasant surprises for the club in 2016.
The National League West figures to be the most competitive division this year. With the Dodgers and Giants fairly deep, the D-backs made some major ripples after inking Zack Greinke, trading for Shelby Miller and Jean Segura and opening up a spot in left field for Yasmany Tomas. Always a force, the offense will continue to run around the top shelf talent of first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
As for the rest of the West, the San Diego Padres overhaul experiment failed last season, mustering only 74 wins. Free agency severed ties with outfielder Justin Upton. Speaking bluntly, Matt Kemp‘s 0.6 WAR probably wasn’t worth the $21.25MM salary the Padres paid him in 2015. If Wil Myers stays healthy, Melvin Upton Jr. turns his career around and the talented rotation plays to their potential, San Diego could maybe compete. Fernando Rodney will likely be a problem at closer, though.
To the north in the NL West, the Colorado Rockies will start their first season in a decade without Troy Tulowitzki anchoring the lineup. In his place, Jose Reyes‘ situation is unclear after domestic violence issues surfaced. Corey Dickerson was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays, but there’s still a decent core here with Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado in place. As always, the pitching staff will likely be a sore spot again in 2016.
Yes, the winds of change will be blowing throughout baseball’s National League in 2016. Even the perennially contending St. Louis Cardinals look to be marginally weaker on paper than they were in 2015 without the services of Jason Heyward. Clubhouse leader, 33-year-old Yadier Molina‘s health is on the rocks and the Cards will be without Lance Lynn the entire year. St. Louis needs either Brandon Moss or Matt Adams to step up in a big way at first base.
Of the 15 most coveted free agents this offseason, eight signed with either the Mets, Nats, Cubs Giants or D-backs. With a number of National League clubs lacking big fish on their rosters, it will be interesting to see if the youth movement of talented prospects making valuable contributions continues in 2016.