Los Angeles Dodgers: Kenta Maeda’s dominance vindicating loss of Greinke

For the Los Angeles Dodgers, Kenta Maeda is certainly softening the blow of Zack Greinke’s offseason exit. Can he maintain his dazzling start?

Signing a player from overseas is always a bit like buying a lottery ticket. Through his first four starts in Major League Baseball, the Los Angeles Dodgers can’t help but feel they’ve hit the jackpot with Kenta Maeda.

In 25.1 innings pitched, the Japanese right-hander has allowed only one run, a solo homer hit by San Francisco Giants second baseman Joe Panik on April 17. That equates to an NL-leading 0.36 ERA, and only Jordan Zimmermann of the Detroit Tigers has posted a better mark overall (0.35 ERA).

Big league hitters haven’t been able to scratch much of anything else off Maeda either. He has allowed 17 hits and walked only five so far, to go along with 23 strikeouts. Those come out to very healthy 6.0 H/9, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 rates.

Maeda’s outings have quickly become appointment viewing in the Los Angeles area, in a frenzy some have already compared to 1981’s “Fernandomania,” when Fernando Valenzuela was the talk of the town. Valenzuela was the last pitcher to surrender just one run in his first four major league starts.

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From the Dodgers’ perspective, Maeda’s meteoric rise is even more satisfying in light of the recent struggles of the hurler they painfully cut ties with over the winter. The Zack Greinke era in Arizona has gotten off to an unexpectedly bumpy start. Through five outings with the Diamondbacks, the former Cy Young winner sports an eyebrow-raising 6.16 ERA. He has also served up an MLB-most 39 base hits over 30.2 frames.

It’s hard to fault any team for balking at a six-year, $206.5 million price tag on a 32-year-old player, even one with pockets as deep as the Dodgers have. However, fans of the Boys in Blue had every right to be concerned about Greinke’s departure. Even with Clayton Kershaw also on board, L.A.’s rotation largely struggled in 2015 outside of its co-aces.

One month into the new campaign, and Maeda is putting a lot of minds at ease. Obviously, it’s still quite early. Much can change between now and October, for both him and Greinke. It’s fair to say that Maeda will likely come down to earth a bit once MLB hitters see more of him, and that Greinke will bring his ERA back to a respectable level before long.

Nevertheless, the Dodgers have plenty of reason to feel good about how this situation is playing out for them. The eight-year, $25 million deal that Maeda signed is looking like the steal of the century right now. Even with the $20 million posting fee and the incentives that could bring its total value north of $100 million, that would be a decent contract even for an average hurler. And Maeda has been anything but average so far.

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Like Greinke, Maeda throws four different pitches (fastball, changeup, curveball, slider) effectively to baffle hitters. His 2.52 FIP and a rather friendly .242 BABIP suggest that he won’t remain this dominant, but with his diverse repertoire and a division containing some legitimate pitcher’s parks, he still has the ingredients for an impressive rookie year.

Though the Greinke comparisons are inevitable, holding any pitcher to that lofty standard seems a bit unfair. However, Maeda really doesn’t need to outdo Greinke in order for the Dodgers to come out ahead in this scenario.

At 28 years old, Maeda’s contract will take him through his age 35 season; Greinke will be turning 38 at the end of his current pact. The Dodgers are paying a bargain rate for some of Maeda’s prime seasons, while the D’backs are doling out top dollar for what very well could be Greinke’s decline years.

The Dodgers have had success mining the international talent pool for gems in the past, a trend that has continued under team president Andrew Friedman. Though Maeda hit the market to relatively little fanfare (countrymen Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka were decidedly more coveted), he’s looking like a runaway success story in the early going.

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Maeda will try to keep it rolling when he squares off against Jose Fernandez and the Miami Marlins tonight at Dodger Stadium.