Milwaukee Brewers: Time to believe in Chris Carter?

By Tim Haberin | May 4, 2016

Apr 19, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Chris Carter (33) hits a sacrifice fly in the fifth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports /

Chris Carter is enjoying an eye-popping start to his first season with the Milwaukee Brewers. Can his hot hitting last?

Chris Carter joined the Milwaukee Brewers during the offseason on a one-year, $2.5 million deal, a seemingly minor signing lost amid the shuffle of more prominent transactions. Over the first month of the campaign, the first baseman is certainly making that look like a wise investment by his new club.

The former Houston Astros slugger is absolutely mashing the ball, particularly over the past few days. In his last three games, Carter has gone 6-for-13 (.462) with four home runs and six RBIs. Overall, he is slashing .287/.356/.713 with nine homers (tied for third in MLB) and 21 RBIs (tied for ninth). His .713 slugging percentage currently leads all major leaguers.

The power surge is not exactly unexpected for Carter: the man knows how to hit the long ball. He belted 90 homers for the Astros over the previous three seasons, including a career-high 37 in 2014. The problem was that Carter was very much an all-or-nothing hitter during that span.

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He was among the league leaders in strikeouts all three years, and actually topped all of MLB in K’s in 2013 with a staggering 212. This overwhelming tendency to strike out has traditionally kept his batting average near the Mendoza line, and last season he actually finished just under it at .199 in 129 games.

Carter is obviously performing much better in that regard in the early part of 2016, maintaining a healthy .287 average at the moment. Combined with his stellar power output, he has been one of the more surprising all-around offensive forces through the first month of the season. The Brewers have benefited, and so have fantasy baseball owners.

But is there reason to believe he can keep this up?

To his credit, Carter spent the offseason trying to eliminate some of his bad habits at the plate. He told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel last month that he focused specifically on hitting the ball the other way more. The change doesn’t really stand out in the numbers (his pull percentage is actually up three percent from last year so far) but something in the altered approach seems to be working.

However, it’s worth noting that despite his early success, Carter hasn’t exactly fixed his strikeout problem. After posting strikeout rates of over 30 percent in each of the last three seasons, the first baseman is fanning 28.7 percent of the time this year. While that’s an improvement, it’s certainly not the sign of a disciplined hitter either.

With the K’s still a major part of his game, it’s probably fair to say that Carter won’t be flirting with a .280-.300 batting average for the duration of the season. His .308 BABIP isn’t particularly high, but it represents a notable jump from the .244 and .267 marks of the previous two campaigns.

Carter may also have trouble maintaining this home run pace, even with his reputation as a power hitter. He is currently rocking a 36.0 percent HR/FB (home run to fly ball) rate, trailing only the Tampa Bay Rays’ Steven Souza Jr. (38.5 percent). That likely won’t last, as his HR/FB rates the past three years were 18.9, 21.9 and 20.7 percent.

Next: Joc Pederson off to familiar start

Carter is 29 years old. That’s not an unprecedented age for a big leaguer to finally put it all together, but it’s not exactly a common point for a career turnaround either. Based on the evidence, it seems more likely than not that the first baseman has been overachieving a bit through his first 25 games.

A regression is likely coming, but Carter and the Brewers will hope that he can at least continue outdoing last year’s disappointing results.

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