Boston Red Sox David Price Is Not As Bad As He Looks
Although I am usually the one bashing him, today I am going to do the unthinkable. I am actually going to defend Boston Red Sox starter David Price.
Throughout his nine year career I have always opposed Boston Red Sox starter David Price by bringing up facts like “He’s not clutch”, or “He’s not a true ace.” Then I actually did an article on it and discovered that in playoff games he is often given no run support and that his stats are actually second best in the league (behind Clayton Kershaw) when compared to pitchers others deem aces.
Despite all of this, I still don’t like the guy as a pitcher and think that a 7 year-$217 Million contract was far too lucrative for him, especially considering that he is going to a team with World Series aspirations when he hasn’t won once in the playoffs (run support or not). That is why I will give two reasons why to not be scared of this horrendous start, but I will also give one reason why this may trigger warning bells that are all too familiar.
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His ERA does not tell the whole story: By now, everyone knows what his ERA is and are very fond to bring it up. Although 6.45 is a real eyesore on his statline, it doesn’t tell the whole story. For example, with an 0-2 count in New York on Saturday with the bases loaded, he threw a great pitch to Didi Gregorius. With an 0-2 count, the hitter has to be very defensive with both his strike zone and his swing, so a low changeup was the perfect pitch for the situation.
However, Gregorius essentially threw out his bat and made solid contact down the line for a bases clearing double. This added three runs to Price’s stats on the day when it was the correct pitch for the situation and it was properly executed, but a miracle by Gregorius turned it into one of the defining moments of the day. This is just a huge stroke of bad luck and nine times out of ten it is a strikeout. Eventually, this problem will even itself out and Price’s ERA will likely come back to what is normal for him.
His stats are not all terrible: On the outside, you probably think that the previous statement is both stupid and ill- informed. However after some digging, I found a stat called Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). FIP measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if they got league average results on balls put in play. Price ranks 20th out of all pitchers with a theoretical 2.93 ERA, which essentially summarizes what I said in the last section.
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Price has only walked 6.6% of batters he has faced, while striking out 29% of those stepping to home plate. He is also the AL leader in K/9 with 11.59. However, I hesitate to bring up this stat because just as his ERA is inflated because of his fielders not making standard plays, his K/9 would deflate if he actually went 9 innings in a game. So far, he is only averaging 5.85 innings a start, which is not even close to where it should be. If he could consistently go seven or eight innings, and have his strikeouts only decline slightly, then I am sure he will return to top form.
Yet, there is also a big reason for concern.
A Huge Dip in Fastball Velocity: One of the major warning signs that has been brought up thus far is Price’s dip in velocity, and this is very worrisome. He went from maxing out at 97 last year in Toronto to maxing at just below 95 this year in Boston. This two MPH gap is extremely frightening to me. While it may now seem like much in the grand scheme of things, it is like deja vu for me.
Remember the last time a perennial Cy Young finalist and former winner had a 2 MPH dip in velocity from an All Star season the previous year to a terrible season the next? How about The Freak, Tim Lincecum, who went from maxing out at 96 in 2011 to maxing at 94 in 2012. This also came with an ERA that was three points higher than the previous year and spiraled into three terrible years that eventually cost him his job.
Next: Should the Dodgers promote Julio Urias as a reliever?
The comparisons are everywhere in the stats and that makes me wonder. Will we see a repeat of that fateful fall from grace or will Price right himself in time to erase these echoes?