Kansas City Royals Eric Hosmer turns up power in 2016
Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer has made an adjustment that’s turning loose his power.
Until this season, Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer has had the opposite fluctuation as the San Francisco Giants. While the Giants have won the World Series in every even numbered year this decade and missed the playoffs in all the odd numbered years, Hosmer has swooned during even years but is an above average hitter in the odds.
Players on the Giants have suggested that there is something to the highs and lows from season to season due to the extra strain of a postseason run. And since the Royals are the defending World Champions, it shouldn’t come as a surprise if Hosmer were to experience another lull.
If the first month-plus of the season is any indication, Hosmer has broken the even-year curse.
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Let’s look at Hosmer’s career to date: He was third in American Rookie of the Year voting in 2011; had an .801 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) and 118 OPS+ in 2013; and had a career-high .363 on-base percentage, .822 OPS and 122 OPS+ in 2015. Conversely, he was mired in a sophomore slump in 2012 and hit only nine home runs and had a .318 OBP in 2014.
Hosmer wasted no time getting 2016 off on the right foot. He had three hits in the Royals’ opener against the New York Mets and had an 18-game hit streak from April 10 to April 29. Since then he’s hit safely in 8 of 9 games and has three home runs in May. He’s currently on pace to finish with career highs in batting average, OBP, slugging, OPS+ and home runs.
Hosmer’s .325/.377/.542 slash line is impressive, and the way he’s putting up those numbers is enlightening: Entering play Tuesday, Hosmer had swung at 25.2 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, according to FanGraphs. That is seven percentage points lower than 2015 and 11.2 lower than 2014.
Here’s a visual representation of Hosmer’s adjustment from Brooks Baseball—on the top is his swing percentage from 2011-2015, and on the bottom is 2016. (Blue means he’s swinging less often.)
Notice all the blue on the 2016 chart compared to the previous one. Hosmer is a left-handed hitter, so all that blue on the left mean’s he’s laying off the pitches off the outside part of the plate; the blue on the right means he’s spitting on pitches that could jam him inside.
Where this approach is benefiting Hosmer the most is his power production. Thanks to the miracle of Statcast, we know that Hosmer’s average exit velocity on batted balls has gone up from 90.4 mph in 2015 to 93.9 mph in 2016 entering play Tuesday. That’s 15th in the majors among players with a minimum of 50 batted balls. The hike in exit velo makes sense, considering swinging at pitches outside the zone seriously saps power.
Want more proof? Hosmer’s isolated power has gone up from .162 in 2015 to .224 this season and he’s hitting home runs on 23.1 percent of his fly balls against just 15.1 last year.
Hosmer has been one of the only bright spots for the Royals, who have been drifting for the past two weeks. If outfielder Lorenzo Cain returns to form like he did in last night’s three home run performance, third baseman Mike Moustakas keeps mashing and the rotation pitches like it deserves to have one of the game’s best bullpens behind it, then the Royals should compete for the AL Central title.
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Hosmer won’t garner much MVP support, but as the 3-time defending AL Gold Glove winner at first base who is having a career year at the plate, he could be turning into one of the game’s best players.