San Francisco Giants’ Johnny Cueto making case for best offseason signing
By Tim Haberin
Johnny Cueto has regained his dominant form since joining the San Francisco Giants. Is he this year’s best offseason addition?
When the San Francisco Giants signed starting pitcher Johnny Cueto to a six-year, $130 million contract in the offseason, many wondered if they would come to regret the decision. After all, the right-hander did not enjoy the most convincing walk year during the 2015 campaign.
The trouble started after a midseason trade to the Kansas City Royals. Cueto sputtered to a 4.76 ERA in 13 regular season starts for KC, well below his usual standard. His inconsistency continued into the postseason, but he did manage to enter free agency on a very high note by tossing a complete game against the Mets in Game 2 of the World Series, allowing only one run on two hits.
The Giants hoped they would be getting that pitcher, as well as the one who posted a 2.73 ERA for the Cincinnati Reds from 2010 to 2014. Two months into the 2016 season, that is exactly what has happened.
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While names like Clayton Kershaw and Jake Arrieta are more likely to be heard on a daily basis, Cueto has undoubtedly been one of the top hurlers in the league to this point. In 11 outings he owns an 8-1 record, 2.31 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Over 81.2 innings he has allowed 69 hits (7.6 H/9) and just 14 walks (1.5 BB/9) while striking out 72 (7.9 K/9).
He has also thrown three complete games, currently tied for the MLB lead with Kershaw, Chris Sale and Steven Wright.
You could point to several reasons for Cueto’s resounding success in the early part of this season. At the moment he is maintaining the lowest walk rate of his career, and combined with his solid strikeout numbers, that gives him a 5.14 K/BB ratio, also a personal best.
He is keeping the home runs at bay as well. In 81.2 innings he has served up only three; in 81.1 regular season frames for the Royals last year he allowed 10. Pitching his home games in AT&T Park, which surrendered an MLB-low 59.9 homers per 100 hit in a league average park a year ago, probably doesn’t hurt in that regard. Keep in mind that Cueto thrived for several years in the small, hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park (113.7 homers per 100 last season).
Cueto’s impressive form seems like it could be sustainable, too. His 2.41 FIP is only a touch above his ERA, and the .291 BABIP of his opposing hitters is about league average. He is also generating a 49.3 percent ground ball rate, his highest since 2013. In front of the Giants’ stellar infield defense, that’s a good recipe for outs.
San Francisco’s investment looks even better in light of the early struggles endured by the other marquee pitchers who signed mega-deals last winter. Though they have been gradually improving of late, David Price and Zack Greinke currently hold 5.11 and 4.71 ERAs, respectively. That is certainly not what the Red Sox and Diamondbacks envisioned when they committed over $200 million to each of them.
The Giants will pay Cueto $15,833,333 this year and $21,833,833 each season from 2017 to 2021. There is also a $22 million team option in 2022. Right now that appears like a bargain for his current dominance. It’s worth noting, however, that the righty can opt out of his deal after the 2017 season, and if he’s still pitching like this, it’s hard to imagine him not testing the market again at age 31.
Even if he enters the free agency pool again after only two seasons, the Giants have be thrilled with Cueto in the short term. He gives them another legitimate weapon in a rotation that already boasts Madison Bumgarner. Oh yeah, and Jeff Samardzija – another Giants offseason addition – has exceeded expectations as well (2.84 ERA in 76 IP).
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If you’re looking to identify the best signing of the offseason, Cueto has to be at or near the top of the list, although the Cubs must be very pleased with what they’ve seen from Ben Zobrist so far (.351/.452/.538). The Giants will hope that the veteran hurler continues paying dividends for the rest of the campaign and into the postseason.