Pittsburgh Pirates’ faith in Gregory Polanco paying off

The Pittsburgh Pirates inked Gregory Polanco to an extension at the beginning of the season, betting he would take a major step forward in 2016. So far, that’s looking like a wise decision.

The Pittsburgh Pirates placed a significant bet on one of their homegrown talents during the first week of the 2016 regular season. They agreed to terms with 24-year-old outfielder Gregory Polanco on a five-year contract extension on April 5.

You would think such an investment would follow a breakout season for the youngster, but that certainly wasn’t the case in 2015. Last year Polanco slashed an unremarkable .256/.320/.381 with nine home runs and 52 RBI. He did manage to make somewhat of an impact with his speed, though, swiping 27 bags in 37 attempts.

Pirates fans, or those who watched Polanco closely, know that last year’s campaign was a largely inconsistent one for the outfielder. After batting a respectable .278 in April, he slashed a meager .213/.297/.303 through May and June. Things began looking up after the All-Star break, however, and in the month of August Polanco posted a hearty .330/.380/.500 line with three homers.

Pittsburgh evidently predicted that that was the kind of player Polanco could be moving forward, and just over two months into the new season, it appears they may have been correct.

Through 53 games, Polanco is outpacing virtually every offensive mark he set in his previous two MLB seasons. He owns a .308/.391/.556 slash line, has tied his career-high in homers with nine, and has driven in 38 runs, making him an almost certain bet to smash his personal best (52) by the Midsummer Classic.

Polanco is currently tied for the National League lead with 18 doubles, though his stolen base pace has slowed a bit with a present total of seven. His .947 OPS leads a talented Pirates roster (min. 100 PA), outranking the likes of Andrew McCutchen (.769) and Starling Marte (.858).

On Saturday, he belted a go-ahead solo homer in the seventh inning of the Pirates’ eventual 8-7 win over the Angels:

So what has been the secret to Polanco’s success in the first two months and change of 2016? For one thing, his plate discipline has improved appreciably. Though he’s swinging the bat at almost the same rate as a year ago (44.3 percent, as per Fangraphs), he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone (28.9 percent, down from 30.6 percent last year) and more pitches inside the strike zone (68.4 percent, up from 63.2 percent last year).

His strikeout percentage has declined only slightly (18.1 percent, down from 18.6 percent), but he’s walking considerably more (11.9 percent, up from 8.4 percent). This enhanced approach is helping Polanco maintain an OBP over 70 points higher than in 2015.

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Of course, Polanco is also hitting for a lot more power as well. Though his fly ball percentage is a bit down (33.8 percent, down from 34.9), more of those fly balls are leaving the park. His home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB) currently sits at 17 percent. That’s over three times last year’s rate of 5.5 percent.

Obviously, Polanco may not be able to keep up that home run pace all year. His .345 BABIP could also regress toward last season’s decidedly more average .308 mark. However, the exciting thing about him, and what the Pirates are surely enthusiastic about, is that he is still only 24 years old. He’s already made big strides since last season and could still make more.

And thanks to the aforementioned extension, the Bucs have him locked up at a rather team-friendly rate. Polanco is due to make a total of $35 million from 2017 to 2021. Pittsburgh also has team options the following two years for $12.5 million and $13.5 million, respectively. So the Pirates could have Polanco through his age-31 season at an affordable price tag. If he keeps producing like he is at the moment, the deal looks even better.

Pittsburgh sports a 30-26 record at the moment, but unfortunately, sharing a division with the Chicago Cubs means they’re 9.5 games off the pace for the NL Central lead. The only way they (or any team, for that matter) gets back into the division hunt is if the Cubs experience a monumental collapse somewhere along the line. Right now, that’s difficult to envision.

Next: Braves Trade Deadline Preview

We identified Polanco as a potential X-factor for the Pirates prior to the season, and in many ways that’s still the case. If they are to clinch a postseason berth in a competitive National League field, the continuing emergence of the young outfielder will play a key role.