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MLB: Will We Ever See Another Player Reach 3,000 Hits?

By Benno Martens

Jun 13, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; Miami Marlins center fielder Ichiro Suzuki (51) singles during the eighth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 13, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; Miami Marlins center fielder Ichiro Suzuki (51) singles during the eighth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports /
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Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /

The countdown to 3,000 hits is on for Ichiro, but there are a handful of MLB players in the game today who are also knocking on the door to join the club. Who has the best chance of reaching this prestigious career milestone?

In Major League Baseball, there are a few numbers that over time have come to be so iconic as to be seemingly immortal. The pitcher with 300 wins. The slugger with 500 home runs. The 29 men who have reached the 3,000 hit plateau in their careers are a part of this cultural-historical cadre as well.

A brief glimpse at the list of players who have reached 3,000 hits in their big league careers offers a veritable who’s who not only of baseball history’s most prolific batsmen, but of those who have remained peak performers throughout long careers. No player who has amassed 3,000 hits in his career to this point played fewer than 17 seasons, and several plied their trade for more than two decades.

26 of the club’s members have been enshrined in the Hall of Fame. Alex Rodriguez, the only active member, will likely end up there as well, despite his sordid PED past, while all-time hits leader Pete Rose is ineligible due to his lifetime ban from the game, and Rafael Palmeiro, under a PED cloud himself, is no longer on the ballot.

Today there are a handful of players primed to join the company of Cobb, Musial, Clemente and other luminaries of the game’s past. Ten active players are at least two-thirds of the way there, but not all will reach the finish line. There are also a number of young players who are off to the kind of starts to their careers that could have them, in another decade or more, carving their own path towards the club.

Using the Bill James Favorite Toy formula, we take a look at the players in the big leagues right now who at the very least stand a shot at reaching the milestone. No one is a sure thing, and predictions can prove inaccurate, but based purely on the numbers, the 3,000 hits club should begin preparing to welcome a new batch of players to its ranks very soon.

Next: A great start.

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