New York Yankees should not dismiss potential Andrew Miller trade

Of all their discussed trade pieces, the New York Yankees might be most hesitant to deal Andrew Miller. Ignoring the possibility would be a mistake.

Much has been made of the New York Yankees‘ trade deadline plans, with most of the attention on the three-headed monster in the team’s bullpen. The elite trio of Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman would surely be of interest to contenders gearing up for a deep postseason run.

Of course, the Yankees can’t seem to shake the notion that they could be one of those contending clubs themselves. They are currently four games out of the second AL Wild Card spot, which is by no means an insurmountable deficit. But anyone who has been following the team this year knows that it has been a grind in every sense of the word.

Each time they claw their way back to .500, they seem to slip again. Case in point, after winning the final two games of last week’s series with the AL-best Texas Rangers to force a series split, they have dropped the first two contests against the lowly San Diego Padres.

Yet the Bombers (ownership in particular) appear determined to avoid saying the word “sell,” at least for the moment. They are even remaining adamant in holding on to their arguably most valuable trade chip, if reports are to be believed.

According to George A. King III of the New York Post, the Yanks are not making lefty reliever Andrew Miller available, despite substantial interest from other teams. A source told him, “They are saying no on Miller. But there is a lot of time left.”

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While it’s true that nearly a month remains before the August 1 deadline, the Yankees’ apparent stubbornness has certainly been a little frustrating for fans who would prefer to see them lay the foundation for next year and beyond. They would surely like to have Miller be a part of that future, but they should also not outright dismiss trading him.

Despite serving up a walk-off home run on Saturday night, Miller has been the most effective member of the Yanks’ bullpen triumvirate. In fact, he’s enjoying his strongest season yet as a relief pitcher in a career that has already featured some very impressive campaigns. Miller boasts a 1.51 ERA over 35.2 innings of work, allowing six earned runs on 19 hits and just four walks. He has also struck out 65 batters, making for an eye-popping 16.4 K/9. That rate currently leads all big league hurlers (min. 10 IP) and would be the highest ever for the left-hander.

Aside from his stellar performance, there are other factors that make Miller extremely appealing to bullpen-needy teams (and could also make the Yankees more motivated to keep him). For one thing, he’s signed through 2018 at $9 million a year, a rate that’s looking increasingly like a bargain. On the other hand, Aroldis Chapman will be a free agent at the end of the season and will almost certainly command a significant contract over the winter. Miller would naturally net a more attractive trade package than a rental.

What kind of package could that be? Corinne Landrey of Today’s Knuckleball recently mused on that subject and determined that Miller should bring back a “huge return” for the Yankees. She identified the Padres’ four-prospect haul in last year’s Craig Kimbrel trade with the Red Sox as a comparable template:

"“Two top-100 prospects and two intriguing complementary prospects. That was the going rate last winter for an elite relief pitcher owed a not-insignificant amount of money, and that’s where the Yankees would be reasonable to set their sights.”"

The Yankees have a core group of players in their minor league system that they are quite excited about, but overall most rankings place their farm in the middle of the pack at best. This summer could provide them the opportunity to add a few more legitimate prospects into the mix, thereby boosting their chances of finding the young, cost-controlled talent they’ve so sorely lacked in recent memory.

Dealing Miller would weaken the Yankees pen in the short-term (what bullpen wouldn’t be worse off after removing such a weapon?) but it probably wouldn’t decimate it in the long-term. Betances doesn’t hit free agency until after the 2019 season, and according to Jon Heyman they have even discussed extending Chapman.

All things considered, Chapman still seems like the most likely one to go. But in their present situation, the Yankees should really be open to anything, and that includes moving Miller in the right deal. With teams like the Cubs, Rangers and Nationals scouting the Yanks’ elite relievers lately, a tempting offer could be made.

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With four weeks to go, the Yankees’ defiant signals could certainly be posturing before they ultimately relent and trade some assets. But whatever the case, they would be doing themselves a disservice by not at least exploring what a more coveted piece like Miller could get them.