Examining Craig Kimbrel’s unpleasant night
Boston Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel had a tough time in a 7-2 loss to the Texas Rangers in Fenway Park on Tuesday night, but it wasn’t actually shocking when you examine his recent numbers.
Craig Kimbrel experienced something he’s never been through before as a major leaguer on Tuesday night: He failed to retire at least one batter during his relief appearance in Boston’s 7-2 loss to Texas.
Kimbrel came into the game in the ninth inning with the score 3-2 in favor of the Rangers and proceeded to give up four runs on three hits with a walk and a home run. He also did not strike out a batter during his brief, but eventful appearance.
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He started things off with a walk on five pitches to Elvis Andrus. Kimbrel was missing high in that at bat and Andrus wasn’t biting. He fouled off one pitch and watched the rest go by. The next batter was Rougned Odor, who singled to right on the first pitch he saw from Kimbrell, a 98.3 mph fastball that was down the middle. Andrus advanced to third. Jurickson Profar was next and he also singled which scored Andrus and advanced Odor to third. Then Robinson Chirinos stepped up and hit the third pitch he saw, a 99 mph fastball that was inside and waist high, and hit it into one of the light towers on the Green Monster to give the Rangers a 7-2 lead.
Manager John Farrell pulled Kimbrel and replaced him with Heath Hembree who set down Nomar Mazara, Ian Desmond and Adrian Beltre in order to end the inning.
It seemed like a shocking turn of events for Kimbrel, the Red Sox and the fans in attendance, but was it really?
Kimbrell has now allowed seven earned runs in his last 4 2/3 innings (or five outings) and before last night’s game, Kimbrel hadn’t ever given up more than three runs in a game.
This season, Kimbrel’s left on base percentage is 75.3. Last season, it was 80.6 and for his career it’s 84.5. His ground ball rate has dropped dramatically this season. It is currently sitting at 29.7. His career average is 43.4 and last year it was 46.1. Kimbrel hasn’t had a year below 40 percent since his first year with the Braves in 2010.
Overall, this season, the batting average against Kimbrel’s fastball is .197 but when you shrink the sample size and just look at his numbers from June 1 on, it jumps to .286. From June 15 on, it goes up again to .300. And since June 27, batters are hitting .375 off his fastball and .500 off his curve. During his last seven games he’s thrown six and 2/3 innings, and has given up 10 hits, 7 runs, and has walked 5 batters while striking out 10. That works out to a 9.45 ERA. He had two saves and a win and a loss apiece during those seven games.
Kimrbel’s fastball velocity hasn’t dipped and has been pretty steady this season. There was a minuscule drop off in May from 98.3 to 98.0, but since then it’s gone up, and in July it is averaging 98.6. So it seems that Kimbrel’s issue of late, and especially on Tuesday night in Fenway, was his location. A 98 mph fastball can be great, but throwing a 98 mph fastball that goes right down the middle, and that the batter is expecting, isn’t great. And that is what happened with Kimbrel against the Rangers.
Maybe this is just a rough patch for the reliever—all major league closers go through it at some point or another in the season—but the Red Sox, and Kimbrel, better hope that’s all it is or they could be in big trouble.