Chicago Cubs: Is Dexter Fowler the Most Valuable Cub?
By JJ Keller
The Chicago Cubs have more than their fair share of superstar players. But does Dexter Fowler deserve more credit for his role in their success?
The Chicago Cubs, as a whole, are nothing short of spectacular. They came into the season being, on paper, a major powerhouse, and their actual performance has confirmed that. They are the best team in the National League at 52-32, which is also good for 2nd best in all of baseball.
Of course, a team like that is bound to have multiple star-caliber players on the roster, and the Cubs certainly do. The names that might come to mind are Kris Bryant, Jake Arrieta, Anthony Rizzo, Jon Lester, even Ben Zobrist. All are valid, of course. They are all among the cream of the crop at their positions.
But the Cubs may have another star-caliber player as well, in center fielder Dexter Fowler. It’s easy for him to be overshadowed on such a stacked roster, and that’s certainly part of it, but there’s also an aspect that is earned, if you will.
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What I mean is, entering this season Dexter Fowler wasn’t elite. He was anywhere from average to very good, depending on the year and how you grade out his defense, but he wasn’t a star. In the past, it was totally fair to not include him in the above list.
But things have changed, at least to this point in the season. Fowler season line is .290/.398/.483 with a 139 wRC+ and 2.8 WAR. His OBP is 2nd best on the Cubs, his wRC+ is 3rd, and his WAR is also 2nd.
Fowler has always been a good on-base guy, with a career .365 OBP coming into the season, but his power was inconsistent, generally around average or a touch better. This year, both are up, particularly the power, as seen in his .198 ISO compared to .151 for his career coming into the year. At this point, his 139 wRC+ is the best of his career.
But an equally important shift has been in his defense. Now, we have to first realize that defensive metrics, especially in a partial season, can be volatile and quite frankly wrong. But, it’s what we have, and it’s better than nothing.
Prior to this year, and particularly prior to joining the Cubs, defensive metrics didn’t care for Fowler. He has a career -62 in both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating (-11 UZR/150). So far this year he has a +3 DRS and +1.6 UZR, not great but a touch above average, and certainly better than how he graded out in the past.
Even last year may have shown some improvements, as although he had a -12 DRS, his UZR was just -1.7. For me, this lends some credence to the idea that he may have improved some; maybe the Cubs saw something in his positioning that is now allowing him to get to more balls. Or maybe this is a small sample and his defensive numbers will crash back down.
Beyond all that, though, is the Cubs struggles since he hit the DL back in June 18th. Since that date, the Cubs are just 6-12. Is Fowler that important to the team, that losing him caused their struggles?
The short answer is probably not. Sure, not having a guy who gets on base almost 40% of the time leading off for you anymore is going to hurt, there’s no doubt about that. But they have lost twice as much as they have won since Fowler has been out, and no single player is good enough to stop that.
Maybe they win 7 or 8 games instead of 6, but it’s likely they would have struggled anyway. I think there is a tendency to want to look at baseball the same way we do other sports, but we really can’t do so. Baseball is more team-driven than most sports. You can have the best player in the game and still be a bad team; the 2016 Los Angeles Angels are proof of that.
With that said, I think we still need to give Dexter Fowler his due, and if he keeps up this production on both sides of the ball he will be just as much a part of the Cubs success as Bryant, or Rizzo, or Arrieta.