MLB: Three Teams Underperforming Run Differentials

After the All-Star break, here is a look at five MLB teams that are underperforming their run differentials, a key indicator on how their second half could go.

Yesterday, we took a look at five teams outperforming their run differentials. Now we’ll take a look at teams that have underperformed their run differentials in the first half of the season.

The teams we will look at today, unlike the ones we saw yesterday, have played a bit worse than their run differentials suggest. These teams could potentially be ready to explode for a huge second half, for some teams to win their division, the Wild Card or even simply be an up-and-coming young team aiming for 2017 success.

Using Fangraphs, we use “Pythagorean Record” and “Base Runs” to calculate if a team is outperforming or under-performing their run differential. You can find this data on the Fangraphs Projected Standings page.

Before we delve into the post, here is a look at an explanation for each statistic we will be looking at.

Pythagorean

"You may not know Pythagorean Record by that name, but you’ve likely heard about run differential. Run differential allows you to calculate a team’s Pythagorean Record. The idea here is that how many runs a team scores and allows is a better reflection of their ability and performance than their W/L record."

Base Runs

"Base Runs helps here because it takes into account a team’s performance without considering the sequencing to calculated expected runs scored and runs allowed, and then takes those numbers to generate expected wins and expected losses. There are a lot of ways to get to 4-1 in the standings, but the team’s expected run differential is going to be a better predictor of future success than that 4-1 record going forward."

These are the teams we could possibly see regress to their true talent levels in the second half, which could potentially lead some of the teams on the list into a playoff spot, or sometimes into a division lead, in a highly competitive season.

Next: Number 3