Baltimore Orioles: Is Chris Tillman an Ace?
Chris Tillman has kept the Baltimore Orioles rotation together in 2016, but should the 28 year-old be considered in the upper echelon of starting pitchers in the American League?
The Orioles had just lost four straight games, three of them to their divisional rival, the New York Yankees. Boston had just retaken the American East lead with the Toronto Blue Jays still in hot pursuit. The O’s series finale in New York was one of the bigger games for Buck Showalter’s club as they tried to keep pace and not allow the Yankees to continue to gain ground.
Chris Tillman was called upon to be the team’s stopper once again, and did he deliver. Baltimore’s right-hander pitched seven innings of one-run ball, striking out seven and making big pitch after big pitch in tough situations. After Brad Brach and Zach Britton closed the win, Tillman earned his 14th victory of the year, which ties him with Chris Sale for the American League lead.
Now, think what you want about what “wins” means as a viable statistic for analyzing pitchers, but it’s not just his win totals that have vaulted him up the tiers of AL starters, his other numbers have shown that Tillman has taken another step this year. After his start yesterday, his ERA has now decreased to 3.18.
He’s also averaging around 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings. He is still letting up around 3.5 free passes per nine innings, but he does have a WHIP at 1.19 and has been using his cutter around five percent more of the time than he did last season, according to FanGraphs, which shows that he is opening up his pitching arsenal a bit more this season. Tillman has also been getting more swings and misses on balls in the strike zone. However, there are still some stats that concern skeptics of his strong performance this year.
Even though Tillman is striking out more batters this season, he is also letting up more hard contact and fly balls. His hard contact percentage has gone from 26 percent last season to 30 percent at a little bit over the halfway point of the regular season. Tillman’s fly ball rate has jumped from 35 to 39 percent, his ground ball rate has decreased and his fastball velocity has not really changed.
Bu, what does all of this mean? Tillman is clearly having one of, if not the best season of his career, with the pressure he faces carrying a pitching rotation that needs a lot of improvement to say the least. He’s been extremely consistent, pitching solid games without many outliers, especially in his last four outings. In each of his last four starts, he has gone seven innings, while only allowing one earned run.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
People who consider Tillman to be more of a middle-of-the-rotation starter rather than a potential ace point out that he has been hot and cold so far in his major league career. He came into the league as a top prospect, but really didn’t live up to his potential until 2012, when he helped stabilize the Orioles rotation during their surprise run to the postseason. His ERA increased and then decreased in the two years after that, until he had his worst season yet in 2015, finishing last year with an ERA of 4.99.
Overall, Tillman’s stuff doesn’t scream that he is an ace on a very good rotation, and some of his peripheral numbers show that his success could be somewhat “lucky”, as he has continued to thrive even with his increased hard contact and fly ball numbers . But there is no denying that Tillman has lived up to the billing of a stopper time and again this season, which is made even more impressive considering the rotation that surrounds him.
His increased strikeouts and ability to make good pitches with runners in scoring position has made him one of the more formidable starting pitchers in the American League this season, certainly among the top seven or eight as of right now. He may not be a typical ace, but he deserves recognition for what he has done for a struggling Orioles rotation. There are may be too many holes in his game for him to be considered an elite starting option, but with the way he’s pitched this year, he’s showed that he is certainly a capable number two going forward.
Next: What Could a Rich Hill Trade Look Like?
What do you think of Tillman’s performance this season? Let us know in the comments below.