Philadelphia Phillies: Would it be Wise to Trade Odubel Herrera?

The Philadelphia Phillies are going to be taking a look at Aaron Altherr in center field, which will leave Odubel Herrera manning a corner outfield spot in the short term, and potentially on the trade block this winter, according to Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly.

After being the Phillies’ lone All-Star representative just a month ago, Herrera’s future with the team has been put into question. The return of Altherr, who had been rehabbing from a wrist injury suffered during spring training, has contributed to a lack of playing time of late for Herrera. Salisbury also reports that number three prospect, centerfielder Nick Williams, could join the club in September when rosters expand, further reducing Herrera’s role.

These moves, plus a decrease in plate discipline on the part of Herrera, is what has led to speculation that the Phillies could move their All-Star this winter if the right trade comes along, much like they did trading in Ken Giles to Houston last offseason.

In the first half, Herrera hit .294 with a .378 on-base percentage while earning an OPS of .805. He hit ten homers, drove in 33 and drew 44 walks in 330 at-bats, for a walk rate of 13.33 percent. That’s a major increase over the 5.2 percent walk rate he posted over 147 games in 2015. However, in the second half Herrera has fallen off a bit, batting just .247 with a .307 OBP, two home runs and six driven in. He has walked just seven times in 93 at-bats since the break, which works out to a walk rate of 7.5 percent, and is likely a large chunk of what manager Pete Mackanin meant when he said that Herrera hasn’t been as disciplined at the plate of late.

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Herrera was plucked from the Texas Rangers system in the 2014 Rule 5 Draft. While in the Texas chain of affiliates, the 24-year-old Venezuelan spent the majority of his time manning the middle infield, while occasionally dabbling in the outfield. The Phillies have used him exclusively as their centerfielder in his two seasons with the club, and the move has certainly increased his potential value on the trade market.

But should the Philadelphia Phillies move their lone representative from the Midsummer Classic? Statistically speaking it’s hard to make that case as Herrera leads the team in runs (61), stolen bases (18), WAR (2.2) and is right behind Cesar Hernandez for the team lead in batting average.

Head-to-head, Herrera is just behind Altherr in wRC+ at 110 to 111, although Altherr’s sample size is a bit small and more likely to fluctuate on a game-by-game basis. Defensively, Herrera has a DRS (defensive runs saved) of 0, while Altherr, in over 800 fewer innings has saved one run. If that trend were to continue, Altherr’s defense would be far superior, but again, the sample is a bit too small to make any definitive statements. That theme continues in just about any statistical or sabermetric argument that can be had.

Next: Phillies Pitching Problems a Concern

The underlying question here is this: Will the Phillies be just as good if they lose Herrera, and is the return worth sacrificing the depth that he provides? If he isn’t responding to coaching, or there is more at play, that makes this a completely different story. On the field Herrera has been an above average player. For the right return, a potential trade would make a lot of sense, but the Phillies shouldn’t be in a rush to move him unless there is major concern of a drop-off in production.